I've just seen a chat convo discussing the merits of backing Holland outright taking into account their odds and whether those odds are made high because of the fact we have the other semi tonight featuring two sides who probably shouldn't be any higher on the outright than they are (ie, the suggestion is that Holland is higher than they should be).
If you look around, maybe there is better but I've put £1k on Holland @ 2.54 on Daq (2.5%) which gives, after commission, a payout more in line with odds of 2.5. When matching off, either Germany or Spain would have to be <1.67 on the outright after tonight's game for me to lose out. Surely too short?
Ok, so Holland have never lifted the trophy... but that's true of Spain. And we all know the history between the Dutch and the Germans! Spain/Germany may go in favourite but Holland has been on a run of unbeaten games for a while now so if the winner of tonight's game settles more around 1.8 outright then it's a 4.7% arb which could net a 3 figure sum easily. Of course, it may not and it may turn out to be a total waste of bankroll but hey... if you can't do this every four years...
Edit: Well, didn't quite work out eh?! The bookie @ Expekt who suggested 1.6 would be the first outright price for the winner of Spain v Germany was spot on and over the days they were anywhere from 2.63 down to 1.56 on Daq.
Read some thoughts that early money had gone on Spain post Germany game and that they would lengthen to kickoff but this didn't materialise so it became worse to trade out the longer the waited in reality.
Suppose most doing it may have had a book running which would absorb some of the loss or done some offer like McBookie (I had my £20 on Spain) so things probably weren't too bad hopefully. One book did have 1.7 on Spain which was a get out but can't really rely on small books to be out of line on such a big game too often and if diciplined early on then even a large stake wouldn't have been to bad a loss.
As an FYI and this was never about going in-play but HT odds (0-0) still pretty much same as at kickoff - even though Holland didn't look to far out of the game, they were on so many yellows that it was unlikely they could come in I guess.
FT (0-0) they had come in and small profit but still Spain around 1.68/1.69 and ET HT 1.72-1.74 but that was never the 'play' here as it was pre-game trading.