There is logic to all of that lotte but it is not so much a question of what you buy it is when you buy it.
All of the above may be true but if everyone else thought that last week and pushed the price up 20% you already missed the boat and despite being true the price wont rise it has already risen.
For ITV coincidently I made an analysis of the price chart once to show the point:
It is exactly the same company at every point really, certainly no macro argument like you had altered. yet you could be looking at a 10% profit or loss easily it just depends WHEN you bought.
Dont buy "good" companies if they are overpriced. Vodafone were £4 around 1999/2000 when the argument was everyone would own a mobile phone and use them loads etc etc. Well that came true. BUT they were still too expensive at £4 though so they crashed to under £1 a few years later and still have not regained half the peak almost a decade on.