Betfair Trading anyone?

[Gibber]

Does anyone trade on an sports. Ive been having a bit of a pop over the last couple of days on the champions league matches made a nice sum on the man utd game last night, but made a nice loss on the chelsea game tonight (should have traded out much sooner but was sure chelsea would score!). Does anyone do a lot of this? I think might try tennis next got an ebook that explains some good methods for much less risk.

[munk]

I don't do a lot of it, I was tempted when I first got into match betting after watching the videos on the Bet Trader Pro site... but after having a few flirts with it for £2 a time I didn't really get into it, made a little, lost a little, came out about even really. That was on the horses though in last 10 minutes before the off. Was definitely invaluable experience though and worth spending the time on to understand how trading works, at the end of the day a matched bet is just a trade anyway with the final 'hedge' bet included in the matched bet.

Personally though I think trading should be the first thing anyone who's thinking of getting into match betting should try their hand at, just so you know how to get out of a tricky situation if something goes wrong. You don't have to go mad and with Bet Trader Pro you can do it with stakes as little as 50p, drop 50p to lay on at 2.4, back it at 2.6, try scratching out by backing/laying at the same price... then hedging the trade out when you're done and trying to understand why it's hedging at the stake/price it's hedging at... just playing around to see how trading works and so you know how to do it if something goes wrong with a match bet. Also so you know how mental markets can be when you bet close to a horse race start or in running on an event!!!

I'd highly recommend Bet Trader Pro if you've not tried it already - have a search for trader on this forum and you should find some posts by me going on about how great it is . Their forum (only just opened a few months ago) is also excellent for tips on trading and general banter on various trading strategies for different sports.

[Andy]

I do it for small stakes for fun sometimes, or to hedge bets in play a little bit, it is for fun not for profit though. I mean I try to make profits, but i realise im only really guessing, and my guess is just as half chanced as everybody elses.

The only time I have tried it for big stakes was on BigBrother markets, because i thought:

Its not like normal sports, there is no "form" whatsoever, it is completely random.
It last 16? Weeks, in that time anything can happen.
Anything can happen, players walk out, disqualified, whatever.
The show delibrately tried to cause controversy, if someone is popular at start then twist it so they are not, is a story so they do it.

Anyway at the start and through the show i would fairly blindly lay the favourites if under 5s and all the way down because i didnt see how they could realistically actually have that sort of chance in a 12 horse, largely random race. Some years it worked well, but it failed with Pete and Chantelle who became favourites, stayed there, and won, with nobody else getting a look in.

I still think the theory is sound but i have not done it the last few years after those losses and deciding it was a stupid. Also there is no liquidity in recent years but once upon a time Big Brother betting on Betfair was a pretty big thing.

[happygooner]

I watched all those trading videos on bettrader which really are invaluable if anybody is thinking of starting. In fact I would recommend bettrader like everyone else. The owner is really hands on and seemingly a real good bloke who is only to happy to pass on his knowledge of trading.

Had a bit of a go myself on the short term trades 10 mins before the off but markets really are nuts and unless you have huge discipline to simply get out when the market moves against you it won't work.

Made a few ticks on a lot of races I tried but was ultimately lacking in discipline. Each time I'd think to myself no worries I can just trade out in running. For a while this worked but sooner or later you are going to get burned which I did.

Layed a horse and the price fell. Had plenty of opportunity to trade out at a small loss which I ignored. The price did't move back up and just kept falling falling falling like a stone. Thought to myself, ok so I'll back it in running. Well the price never reached the original lay price again and the horse romped home.

After sitting and staring at my computer in disbelief for a few minutes I decided that if I was ever going to have a real go at trading it couldn't be with small amounts that I subconsciously thought to myself it wouldn't be the end if I lost.

Therefore the next plan (I always have many - they just just never go anywhere) is to build a substantial amount from matched betting and split the pot in two.

Half towards my honeymoon next year (will please the missus that I'm finally taking something out of gambling as well as help for a hopefully top drawer destination) and half towards a real good crack at this trading lark.

Thoughts at the moment are leaning to more short term trades but with better discipline. As Adam Todd (the guy behind bettrader) explains, it's not so much getting the direction of the price right all the time but making sure to get out quickly when you choose the wrong way - picking the right direction only 50% of the time still has potential).

Also wondering how feasible it is to try and make 1-2 ticks profit on pre-trades for most popular sports where there is lots of money in the market. Back the lay price and lay the back price for a free bet which can easily be hedged.

Anybody here ever tried much of the pre-match trading for small 1-2 ticks profit?

Lastly I'm also now thinking about the over 1.5 goals market at betfair after seeing somebody at punterslounge do this quite well. Seems quite good for trading and getting effectively a free bet.

[munk]

gooner that's exactly how I (and probably 95% of people) think, it's ok, will trade out in running... I still end up doing this on a matched bet and is one of the reasons I hate backing first - cos a lot of the time if the lay price goes up you end up sitting there like a lemon thinking ok it'll go down again, just wait a half a minute... and 10 minutes later it's still not gone back down and before you know it it's in running

Really hate doing it, I think it's just human nature though not to want to accept a loss, no matter how small it is when the logical thing to do would be to just trade out for a small loss and just move on. The brain thinks 'not taking that, it's a loss, if I wait just a short while the price will hopefully come back again...' even though it's a very small loss!

Re the one tick profit thing, have you tried the tick offset tools in BTP (automatically puts in a back bet one tick higher when your lay gets matched or vice versa)?

What I got most from those videos is how important it is not to get greedy, just take tiny 1 or 2 tick profits at a time and if the price does go against you scratch out of it immediately and don't even think about holding out for the price to turn around like you said above.

Re the 1.5 goals market, for a while I thought I was onto a good thing with the betonlive intro bonus. What I'd do each time would be to back the over 1.5 goals before match start and then as soon as a goal was scored I'd lay to lock in a profit when the price dropped significantly.

Worked quite well for a few games but eventually I got stung 2 or 3 times in quick succession which really put me off after that. Plus I think if you're doing that kind of tactic locking in a profit probably isn't profitable over time, you'd have to let the back bets stand without laying them off to gain enough on the times that you did win to offset the times when you lost.

Hope it goes well for your honeymoon anyway

[happygooner]

gooner that's exactly how I (and probably 95% of people) think, it's ok, will trade out in running... I still end up doing this on a matched bet and is one of the reasons I hate backing first - cos a lot of the time if the lay price goes up you end up sitting there like a lemon thinking ok it'll go down again, just wait a half a minute... and 10 minutes later it's still not gone back down and before you know it it's in running

Really hate doing it, I think it's just human nature though not to want to accept a loss, no matter how small it is when the logical thing to do would be to just trade out for a small loss and just move on. The brain thinks 'not taking that, it's a loss, if I wait just a short while the price will hopefully come back again...' even though it's a very small loss!

Re the one tick profit thing, have you tried the tick offset tools in BTP (automatically puts in a back bet one tick higher when your lay gets matched or vice versa)?

What I got most from those videos is how important it is not to get greedy, just take tiny 1 or 2 tick profits at a time and if the price does go against you scratch out of it immediately and don't even think about holding out for the price to turn around like you said above.

Re the 1.5 goals market, for a while I thought I was onto a good thing with the betonlive intro bonus. What I'd do each time would be to back the over 1.5 goals before match start and then as soon as a goal was scored I'd lay to lock in a profit when the price dropped significantly.

Worked quite well for a few games but eventually I got stung 2 or 3 times in quick succession which really put me off after that. Plus I think if you're doing that kind of tactic locking in a profit probably isn't profitable over time, you'd have to let the back bets stand without laying them off to gain enough on the times that you did win to offset the times when you lost.

Hope it goes well for your honeymoon anyway

What the guy was doing for the +1.5 goals was to simply lay all his liability off which kept about 1/3 of the starting odds or more. Just a free bet in essence.

I don't know, I have so many ideas rolling round in my head and this has just added to them.

The 1-2 tick trades I am determined to try and do this and let my small losses go before they turn into big losses. Like I said I think it may be slightly easier with a larger bank which I in no way want or am prepared to lose haha!! You're 100% right on the videos. Greed is ultimately why we find it so hard to trade out for a minimal loss (and why even then when the race goes in running you'e still thinking about making 1-2 ticks rather than just getting out with your arse intact!) as opposed to sitting their like tits and just hoping for the best. But that greed can be conquered I'm sure otherwise there wouldn't be any good traders haha!!

As for pre-match/game trading on things like tennis and football do you think it's possible to pick up 1-2 tick trades on most of the heavily bet ones? Can't see why not if enough people are taking the prices on offer you just go in and make an offer on both the lay and back side. If you do this in the morning and just run through the days events greening up it could be quite profitable.

I've used many of the tools on BTP including their timer bets and stop loss bets etc. Found that with pre-race trading I wasn't quick enough using stop loss for their to be any point. Think just hovering over your next bet is easier in such a frantic situation. Not tried the tick-offset tools though so will go back and have a look at these.

[munk]

Like I said I think it may be slightly easier with a larger bank which I in no way want or am prepared to lose haha!!

I think you had it right when you said you were going to dedicate a chunk of money to trading, just as much as you can afford to lose just in case it goes wrong and then see how it goes from there.

You're 100% right on the videos. Greed is ultimately why we find it so hard to trade out for a minimal loss (and why even then when the race goes in running you'e still thinking about making 1-2 ticks rather than just getting out with your arse intact!)

Haha I know this one as well... in the past I've thought ok well if I'm going in running and taking this kind of risk I might as well make it worth my while and add a couple more ticks on!

[Giants Seat]

Further to my post in lucky-in-love's tips thread, reading this thread has made me realise where I go wrong. I manage to green - up on the (fabulous) Bet Trader Pro (bought minutes but I much prefer grid to ladder but minutes needed to get access to the tick tools etc) but where I cock up is getting involved in running. That is where I blew £480 in about two hours chasing losses.I've not done it since but have had a dabble on greening up maybe one tick trading just prior to the race then taking a small profit. Maybe thats the key? Or there are undoubtedly some great in running punters but for me in running its a no-no: dead easy to get seriously burned.

[happygooner]

Further to my post in lucky-in-love's tips thread, reading this thread has made me realise where I go wrong. I manage to green - up on the (fabulous) Bet Trader Pro (bought minutes but I much prefer grid to ladder but minutes needed to get access to the tick tools etc) but where I cock up is getting involved in running. That is where I blew £480 in about two hours chasing losses.I've not done it since but have had a dabble on greening up maybe one tick trading just prior to the race then taking a small profit. Maybe thats the key? Or there are undoubtedly some great in running punters but for me in running its a no-no: dead easy to get seriously burned.

Without question, in-running on the horses is crazy.

[BingBang]

Stumbled across this post today, downloaded the software, watched a couple of videos (not done all the videos yet) and had a dabble.

Made an accidental lay bet on a horse for £50 instead of £5, panicked until I got into the proper betfair site, wondered if I could back the same horse as it was showing I only had £2 available funds, put £50 on the back and viola if the horse wins I was up £2.60 (hadnt found the hedge button at this stage!), horse romped home and I watched a few more videos and had another go.

Pressed the hedge button and saw my next £2 lay and £2 back trades go from a 10 pence win if favourite wins to a 4p win or a 2p win - loved thought it was excellent.

Onwards and upwards next horse race decided which way market was going to go made a £5 lay and with 3 minutes left to go I bottled it and made the same £5 back bet leaving with exerted energy only to show for the race.

A little wiser and more confident the £5 lay went in and I again bottle it and went for the £5 back at the same odds with 2.30 minutes left to go.

Both times had I left it until 1 minute I would have made a profit.

Being an addictive little so and so that I am I then went for a lay bet - never got layed with the market going the other way and I just cancelled the bet with 5 minutes left to go as there was so much money at higher odds compared to what I was asking for - so again another lesson learned dont panic if it's not right it's not right and leave the market completely.

looked for the next horse race but had to make son his dinner - will revisit this again tomorrow.