BetTrader Challenge Chat Thread

[munk]

Thought I had better report in - though I feel I might scupper my balance just by mentioning I am in the black atm. Concentrating on scalping and disciplining myself to get out quick and accept losses, in return for when I get them right jumping off the profit when the money slows down. I am at about £80 atm, though the first few days I did some really silly things, like having my whole bank in liability in-running just to make sure I didn't lose 28p . Now getting better, find I have lots of little losses and a regular supply of good trades.

Another thing I tend to do if the odds are static but loads of trades appear, as in the last few minutes before the race. I drop in my stake on one side and as soon as it is taken, drop in it the other for a 1 tick gain. Good when the trades are furious, I managed to get in about 5 at tops like that - but awful when suddenly the odds go against you.

I don't know how many hours I have put in so far but I feel I am working currently at minimum wage in a third world country. I'm driven in the hope that my tortoiselike method will win the busting hares

Have tried a little of the US Races - totally different experience, but still positive overall. I find I am fishing for odds here. I wait to see some regular trades going on and see if I can offer odds as far out of the trades as possible. If they get taken then jump back in and trade of straight away. There are two problems to face here though. One is the races may start before the counter reaches zero and then it is all over, I prefer to hedge everything out before then. The other is that the liquidity can be awful and trades sometimes stop for ages, so hedging out is sometimes a bit nerve-wracking, especially if it suspends before you get out .

No big wins yet, doubtful whether I will reach that with the techniques I am using but as I am using 10% of my bank for stakes (therefore sticking under the odds of 10) I at least find myself increasing the stakes each day I start, so instead of £5 in the beginning, I am now staking about £8. I know it's not a lot but it is satisfying to increase it .

I am glad the challenge came up, I wouldn't have gone through the hassle of setting up a separate account if it hadn't been set in the rules. Also it has forced me to get disciplined first, I can see now my wild loss chases were totally unnecessary and destructive, though believe me I still have to fight to stay in line.

One last thought, I realise now that the swearing, the inane sayings in funny accents, the singing of 'Maggie May' and other songs of tenuous connection all come with the job of trading. All this and more demonstrated in the RacingTrader videos if you need examples. I find I am doing all these things EXACTLY THE SAME whilst concentrating on trading - coming out with all sorts of stupid nonsense. I now call it the 'Todd' effect. Even creating new expletives as I go along, like Billy Connolly's 'GETIFU YA BASA' - or something similar. Any psychology students out there need a research project, I think a few Camtasia recordings of these trades will be enlightening. Not sure of what it may prove except my own apparent increasing insanity as I go through the competition this month. .

I've done it again - 'War and Peace' in a post - I meant to just say 'Hi guys I'm at about £80 - still going'....

Thanks for the report, please remember to get your trade of the week entry in (week ending Sunday), you will be in with a good chance of winning it even if it's not the largest if you go into enough detail similar to your report above.

Cheers.

[LuckyInLove]

Hi Lucky,

Great to hear you're doing so well. I am also doing the horses mainly, and not finding it particularly satisfactory. Would you be willing to expand on your methods a bit (though I shall quite understand if you say "not on your life, we're in a competition here!")?

No problem - Not really worried about the competition, I'm amazed that I am still in the black to be honest, all previous attempts at trading have been a real hit and miss affair, ending obviously in disasterous misses .

What I am struggling with is discipline and this is really what I am working hard to master. I thought I would try it in baby steps and work hard on doing exactly as Adam Todd does it in his Betfair Trading Using Advanced Coin Flipping and Guesswork Techniques. I have on occasion gone into in-play though either to (stupidly) pull back a loss or sometimes (more enjoyably) tried to increase the profit on a horse where I have a safe amount I can use to hedge against without making a loss. Adams technique does work though, there are times when it all seems to go against you but being disciplined and getting out early means that you can follow the trend that at first went against you. The worst I found was when the odds at times seem to jump back and forth between two boundaries - I found that if I just went into frantic 'back-wait to be taken-lay at 1 tick immediately' then I could get a few trades in.

Also at first I jumped in straight away and layed but (with my luck) the odds always seem to go against me, so I am now waiting to see how the movement of money is going. When the tide is going in one direction I jump in - if I am wrong I try to jump out at the same odds and not lose anything. If it suddenly speeds up in one direction I get out quickly at the next available odds I can get for a quick escape, often with a two (occasionly more) loss. This is where the discipline has to kick in, my instincts tell me to quickly get in and recoup my losses, but I find I do better if I wait for a few seconds and see what is happening. I have the image in my mind that the money is like water, having both flow and direction. The worst times is when the flow seems to stop and the direction it takes from there is absolutely random. The best times is when the flow is going in the one direction and you have managed to jump in at the start - though I admit as yet I have really only made about 74p from £6-7 stakes when that has happened.

Something that seems sensible to me (without any other signals) also is the preference is to lay first. It seems logical that the odds could drastically move in your favour should something happen to the horse but not so much the other way, I don't think that all traders, bettors etc will suddenly have a stroke of inspiration that the horse will definately win all at the same time. I know that I have seen big falls in the odds so far, but I don't think anything drastic enough to destry your bank can happen there. If you back first and the horse suddenly goes stiff and keels over then I imagine that would be bank busting time.

Can I just add the disclaimer that the above may all be complete rubbish, but that is my perspective of what I have experienced so far.

My only concern at the moment is that I am not doing any bagging at all at the moment - trading has taken over . However with my current record at the £400 a month challenge I am probably not missing anything .

I hope that helps Cloverleaves, or indeed you understood my trading diatribe - Good luck. If I get any more inspirations I will certainly pass them on. I might fire up Camtasia for a laugh and see if I can work out how to record any of it. Beware of the 'Todd' effect though...

Good luck to everyone else on this challenge.

[Cloverleaves]

Thanks Lucky, this is really helpful. I am seriously impressed by how much you've made just taking a few ticks at a time. It's easy to make the big profits (and losses...) doing live trading, but consistently doing well on pre-race scalping is something else again. Well done!

I had another try yesterday afternoon, and decided that I would practice just going for the one-tick profits, rather than holding out for the larger profits (which would supposedly balance the more frequent losses), as I didn't seem to be doing well with that. I think you are right that the discipline to cut your losses right at the beginning is one of the most important things, and boy is it hard to master! I am also going in to start the trade a little earlier (say about 10-13 mins prior to the race, and mostly getting out no later than 5 mins prior) as the trading isn't quite so mad earlier on. Also (a suggestion in one of Badger's videos) I'm practising more on the second or third favourite, as again the trading is often less manic.

The result was more satisfactory than the previous day, as I managed to get out from the afternoon with a 25p overall profit, and no big losses, though I still think I have room to improve there. Will carry on practising, and hope to emulate your excellent results in time!

Best of luck for the rest of the month.

[LuckyInLove]

To be fair I think about £15 of my profit has been jumping in and out of in-plays, which I decided was too risky. I intend, competition or not, to concentrate on the discipline, small wins, small losses and to build up my bank. There was one occasion where I had £47 in liability and BetTrader stopped updating and stopped on 'Suspended' - that could have blown all my efforts, so I still think that I am where I am with more luck than judgement. I am still not confident enough yet to always lump on my full float in doing trades, though I know that I will do better.
So my expectations for profit this week will be low, hopefully another £10, we'll see how it goes.

As an after thought - you said you were going for 1 tick gains, IMHO I found that is useful near the start of the race when loads of trades are going through. The problem is when the odds suddenly run away from you and all your 1 ticks bite the dust - there is a lot of temptation then to going into in-play (I want to stay away from that for the time being). In Adams video he jumps in with say a lay and waits for it to be taken, he then waits to see which way the market will move with his cursor on an equal back should the market go against him. The profitable scenario is when it goes in the right direction and the possibility of greening up gets higher and higher - personally (for no apparent reason) I stop loss myself at half the profit if it has made it up more than a tick - so I wait to see it go up. If it continues I follow it until the flow stops/slows down or get out again if it falls back with half whatever the highest hedging profit I see.

[LuckyInLove]

[Actually I may just have given myself a bit of insight there. A previous problem was that I was making a small profit on a race, then tinkering and ending up with a bigger loss. Have now learned to make the initial profit, then hedge and move on. I guess then the logical thing must be also to take the initial loss then move on, otherwise, you are accepting small profits on one race, but risking larger losses on another. Bad move! I will try to do same thing regarding profit or loss on all races now.]

Just thinking about what you said there. I think it is better to carry on even though you have already lost.

The reason is simply commission. If you are successful in the next race then possibly you would be successful anyway and pay commission on your winnings. If you continue on in your loss event - then any reduction of the losses until profit are commission free.

The time where I would agree with moving on is if you get a bad 'feeling' about the event and you seem to lose more and more. This is just psychology at work - then it is time to take a break and wait for the next event refreshed.

[Usual talking rubbish and newbie disclaimers apply to any of my opinions]

[munk]

There was one occasion where I had £47 in liability and BetTrader stopped updating and stopped on 'Suspended' - that could have blown all my efforts, so I still think that I am where I am with more luck than judgement. I am still not confident enough yet to always lump on my full float in doing trades, though I know that I will do better.

I have had this as well trading on the US horse races (someone else mentioned it as well) - luckily was only a £2 back bet but could have been a lot worse if it had been some longshot with a £2 lay bet at 50 Have steered clear of the US races since that happened.

[LuckyInLove]

I seem to have been lucky with US races (AUS too on the other account) - That is where I go 'fishing' for odds, to exploit the gap between the back and lay but watching where the last trades have taken place. You know often where you can place your trade in front of others. Sometimes you get a domino effect where the other traders jump in front of you - and a game of cat'n'mouse seems to take place.
Fun - but no liquidity usually, no in-play and I am always afraid I will not be able to get my hedge in in time - sometimes watching the clock and hoping they don't start early...

[AmeliesDad]

*sigh*. I'd got a decent book going in the 3.30 at Ayr today. Racing cancelled due to what sounds like a horrific pile up in the 3'o'clock though! Back to the drawing board.

[Cloverleaves]

I wondered why all the Ayr races suddenly got suspended.

[skippa59]

Would just like to say how impressed I am with the Bettrader software I am using in the trader challenge. The ladder style is excellent and even though trading scares the s..t out of me I still think the software is great