Lay the leader

[Andy]

This is not really trading in any sort of skill way, it is just blindly backing and laying at the given odds but people far cleverer than me worked out it was profitable a few years ago, and had quite detailed methods for what I thought was just guessing.

I am trying a variation of it and have some results and have then fine tuned that and come up with what I think will work best. Or least worst anyway, it depends how you look at it

Any game that I am watching and infront of the PC, so at least I am enjoying it all a bit more, when a team takes the lead, and the odds obviously tumble, you lay them for £50. If they score again leave it (my addition). If at any point the opposing team score to equalise you back them for £40.

Doing this you make £10 on any 1-1 result, and £10+ on any 2-1 or more result depending on final outcome and the odds you backed and layed at. You lose an amount if it stays 1-0 or the leading team go on to win 2-0 or more. Basically it is just gambling the other team will come back, but based on the idea that betfair prices always over react to goals/events in general, and if you do that for long enough, you will end up in profit. We shall see...

[Andy]

Results so far =

England vs Croatia = Layed £50 at 1.24 = Lost £12
Paraguay vs Brazil = Layed £50 at 1.79 = Lost £39.5

[LFC81Eoin]

Thats interesting Andy , a technique i stumbled open doing the willhill bogoff's seems to work everytime , have to look into more but this is it .

I back the favourite in the willhill bogoff so 40 on England (doing it for other half aswell )
Then using the free score bets on 0-0 and 0-1 .

If the favourite scores first i can lay for a profit , if it stays 0-0 i can let the bet ride out , if the underdog scores i can lay for a profit on the correct score and hope the favourite comes back . Its obviously not full proof but has been working successfully on holland and england match last night .

[Andy]

Norwich + £10 after a lay at 1.74 and a back at 4.8

I was sat +£112 on a Norwich win, oh well. I had some practice runs but it was only a dozen, the results were not so extreme then. I will stick to this for now. I will re-asses it after 25 games just doing the very simple/basic lay £50 and back £40 both straight after goals. Then maybe try tweeking it a bit more. The original system was to keep going to 2 goals bt I already dropped that as it was too variable I thought.

[Human123]

I employ a similar strategy..

I look for a home team to be 0-1 down at half time then stick a lay on the leader ...

you will find if it stays 0-1 the odds dont go against you too much untill the 70th minute, then they will start to steam so at that point with no equaliser you can just take the loss or let it ride depending how the game is going.

Alot of home teams come out firing early in 2nd half if they are behind so they will be sure to create some chances early on.

Worked great for me in the MK dons match tonight and the Fulham match yesterday as both away teams had pretty low odds to lay at start of second half.

I, also go green across the book once the equaliser comes in.

[Andy]

After trying it on every CL game the results are as follows:

Real Madrid -£5.50
Milan +£86.50
ManUtd -£6.50
Chelsea -£9
Juventus +£10
Moscow -£14.50
B Munich -£8.50

TOTAL ON THE NIGHT = +£52.50

Overall thoughts, I was watching the scores for The Championship games and would have hit winners on 6 of 8 of those, but they were not "In play" so im cross about that. In the games running I did not want to lay ManUtd or Chelsea really once ahead I dont think they would conceed to weaker teams but I stuck to the strategy. I think the variance is very high I was saved by Milan really, but at the same time Juventus if they had have won was +£110 and they were the favourites to win it before kick off.

I think having just £10 profit on 1-1 but such large wins if the team goes on to regain the league might be a bit extreme. Perhaps having a £15 win for 1-1 and lower on the windfall might be better but I will keep going to the 25 game sample before looking too much at it again. Other quick thought is I would have used this on the ManUtd vs Spurs game at the weekend but I wasnt at my Computer so couldnt but it would have been a +£10.

TOTAL To DATE AFTER 10 GAMES = +£11

[Andy]

I wasn't available to bet last nights CL games but tonights Europa League matches that were "In play" gave me:

Althletico Bilbao -£6.50
CFR Cluj -£16.50
Fenerbahce +£10
Villarreal -£4.50
WBremen +£77
SpartaPrague +£10
P Belgrade +£10
Everton -£7.50
Shakhtar -£16.50
Benfica -£5
Lazio +£10

TOTAL ON THE NIGHT = +£60.50

[Andy]

So looking back on those results, obviously the profit came from the WBremen result, and so I was thinking perhaps it is all a bit of a fluke to get that one result, BUT it should be noted that up until about the 85th minute I was +£150ish on SpartaP and that didnt come in because the other team equalised for 2-2 and I made just £10.

Doing it to the strategy is quite hard and feels like throwing money away when, for example Everton are already odds on to win, they score early and you lay them now when they have a goal lead and then five minutes later they make it 2-0 then 3-0 and you do think well what was the point in that! It is also hard to back back a team for £40 when it becomes 1-1 in the 80th minute and you are sure you are throwing £40 away just let it ride. BUT teams do go on to score again, and in the Juventus game I was +£200ish had Juventus scored again and felt I had thrown away £40 then the other team scored instead! I still made £10 but it could easily have been +£200 teams do score late goals and so stick to the strategy.

The psychological problem with doing this is you always lay things when they are likely to happen, and back it back when not likely again, you are always placing bets you are failrly sure will lose! Which is hard to do.

The advantage is that when you lay the bet, it is never expensive you are always losing a small amount because the team just scored its low odds. The advantage is because the scores are now level and there is not long to go you get high back odds.

Im sticking with what I have got so far, really the only tweak I can think of is to reduce the variance I might consider going all green for 100% profit distribution once a team equalises. Not decided yet, I will keep this going for a while yet. 25 is still a tiny sample, but there is nothing wrong with evolving it slowly.

[wobbler]

Cheers Andy, been following this thread with interest.

Sometimes (usually tennis) I drop a £100 lay on a super hot favourite at 1.02 for 2 quid liability and hope they get off to a bad start. Usually it will only move up a couple of ticks but a couple of times I have made a fair bit using this method. Plus if it doesn't go my way then I back it at 1.01 for a £1 loss. I'm slightly up overall using this method. I see it as a £1 punt and it can add some fun to an otherwise dull tennis match.

[Andy]

A mixed/bad day today really, there were two hits but when the leader has the lead canceled you usually get a big win on them from the back because of the higher odds you get. ManUtd scored which took them from 1.6ish to 1.2ish but because the equaliser came so soon and they were still only 1.7 when it was 1-1. So even though they went on to win it was still only worth £16.50. Other results just went away with no comeback in the Chelsea or Everton games and Fulham pulled just one back and too late.

ManUtd +£16.5
Wolves -£35.50
Everton -£15.50
Chelsea -£9.50
PSG (French Game) +£10

Results on the Day -£34

Results to date - +£37.50