Betting Systems

[Grandthrax]

A friend recently sent me a load of trading systems. Over the next few days I plan to read them and post a summary of them. If you are interested to hear more about a particular system them pm me and I'll send you the pdf of the original.

Disclaimer: I haven't tried any of these personally and I expect most of them won't work. If someone invented a working system then why would they try and sell it?

If you decide to use any of these and it turns out to be a gem, please let me know

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System 1:

This uses a points system. At the beginning of each day go to the racing post website and:

• Ensure that the said horse’s lie’s within the top 4 in terms of betting
forecast on the RP tissue prices.
• Using the RP tissue prices only ensure the odds are up to and including
5/1. We do not lay above 6.0 on Betfair.
• If the horse is Favourite add 2 Marks. If horse is second/joint first
favourite add 1 Mark.
• If the horse lies outside first two betting positions on the RP tissue prices
subtract 1 Mark.
• If the horse has ran in the last 5 days add 1 Mark.
• If the horse hasn’t ran in the last 5 days subtract 1 Mark.
• If the horse has won in his last 3 runs award 2 Marks.
• If the horse hasn't won in his last 3 runs subtract 1 Mark.
• If the horse has won over this ground before (i.e. hard/soft/good) award
3 Marks.
• If horse has won over similar ground add 1 Mark.
• If horse hasn’t won over same/similar ground subtract 2 Marks.
• If the horse has won at this course before award 2 Marks.
• If horse has came 2nd at this course award 1 Mark.
• If horse has done neither, subtract 2 Marks.
• If the horse has won over this distance award 3 Marks.
• If horse has came 2nd over this distance award 1 Mark.
• Subtract 2 Marks if horse has done neither.
• If the horse has won at this class or higher award 2 Mark.
• If the horse has came 2nd at this class or higher award 1 Mark.
• Subtract 2 Marks if horse has done neither.
• If horse is Postdata Pick according to Racing Post, then add 2 Marks.
• If not then add 0 Marks.
Go to Racing Post tips section.
• If the horse has more than 70% of the tips in its favour award 3 Marks.
• Less than 70%, but greater than 40% award 2 Marks.
• Less than 40% subtract 1 Marks.
• Less than 30% subtract 2 Marks.
Go to Racing Post Statistics section
• If the trainer has more than 20% strike rate overall award 2 Marks.
• If the trainer has less than 20% strike rate overall subtract 1 Mark.
• If the jockey has more than 15% strike rate overall award 2 Marks.
• If the jockey has less than 15% strike rate overall subtract 1 Mark.

For horses with <3 marks, lay. It also says only lay one horse per day. The one with the lowest number of marks.

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System 2:

This system revolves around the assumption that when horses steam pre race the traders and punters over react:

First off single out all the races that has 10 runners or more, the races is a hurdles race. The in each of these races look for horses that are between 2.0-4.5 and are 3 years old or more.

Then 10 minutes before the race monitor the horses selected. You're looking for a steamer (where the odds are going down). If your horse does steam then at 6/7 minutes before the race lay it. Then try and trade out for ~4 tick profit. The system is based on the assumption that when a horse steams the prices overreact so the the price will normally reverse and drift towards the off. If you fail to get matched the system says try and get matched in-play.

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System 3:

This system hope to take advantage of the fact that a lot of races of fixed and hopes to profit from this.

First go to the betting site at the Racing Post website, and look for horses
that are priced at 9/4 or less. Build a shortlist of all the
horses that fit that category.
Go to the Racing Post site, and look to see whether the
prize money for your selections is under £6,000. Remove all
the selections that do not fit this criterion.
Check the racing selection type for your selections. We are
only looking to bet on Novice races, and Handicap races.
Remove all selections that do not fit this criteria.
Head to the Odds Checker site, and go to the steamer page.
Look for horses that we have selected thus far which appear
here. Put a tick next to any selections that do.
Head over to Betfair, and click on the name of any
selections left. From the graph does the selection appear to
be steaming in on Betfair? Don’t worry about being too
particular, a simple, clear downward trend will suffice.

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System 4:

This system basically explains weight of money trading in-play. It gives guidelines on how the rice should vay depending on the length of the race and how much volatility to expect and how fast you will need to be.

The guide for this system is long and i haven't read it all so message me for more information and i'll send it to you.

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I'll add more later. When i can be bothered to read them all. I think there is about 30 in all. But I reckon i will discard around half as they are so obviously useless. One said to back the first 3 favourites as the other horse were unlikely to win. And that was it! 32 pages of waffle and that was it.

Also pm if you want a list of the systems that i have. Ie if your looking at buying one chances are i have it and will be happy to send it to you.

[Grandthrax]

System 5:

Football, laying the draw:

Find a game where one or both of the teams have drawn their
last 2 fixtures (use skysports.com for this info)
Go to Betfair.com and lay the draw for the game
Make sure your Liability on each lay you make does not exceed 10% of the betting bank at your disposal

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System 6:

Almost the opposite to system 5. Back the draw if a team hasn't drawn in 5/6 games. If you lose double your stake until you win, then reset your stake.

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System 7:

Approaches value in football matches from a statistical point of view. It says to monitor how a team is playing. For instance you take the amount of times the home team has lost at home (within the last 6 matches) and the amount of times the away team has won away and work out the probabilty of the away team winning from that. Then you compare it to the average chance of any away team winning. You then a bit on to compensate for the book over-round and compare to the booky prices.

Very badly simplified there. But again pm me for the system.

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More to come