Tod1999's 2010 Trading Diary

[tod1999]

2010 is going ot be a very big year (hopefully) for me trading sports on betfair/betdaq!

This will be where i keep my diary of my bets/trades and also give an insight into the thought process behind the bets/trades

I will post all the bets in a separate thread that i am having and will update as soon as i trade out. Then at the end of the night i will write up my diary on the days events.

I am keeping the bets in a seperate thread as not to mess up this thread for the diary. In-play trading can see me have loads of inplay bets and posting everyone in this thread will make the diary look messy and harder to follow

Hope you all enjoy the read and I hope for a very good 2010

[DireEmblem]

Nice to see your starting as well, albeit in a slightly more aggressive/different form.

Good luck, and I hope you only mean to keep 1 thread

[munk]

Nice to see your starting as well, albeit in a slightly more aggressive/different form.

Good luck, and I hope you only mean to keep 1 thread

I think the other thread is meant for keeping track of bets - which to be fair Tod is probably a bit much, but since there's only a couple of you doing trading diaries right now perhaps it will be ok. If we get more than a handful of people doing it though the threads may well be merged to save on clutter/confusion.

[tod1999]

to be fair 2 threads in this part of the forum isnt going to cause any trouble, this section has hardly any new threads with the 1st page having half the threads not posted in for 6 months

Im just having one for the diary and one for the actual bets/trades, as you can see from the bets thread there is already alot of mumbo jumbo and i dont want the diary like that i want it to be easy to read and follow

hope this is ok but i cant see any problems, in the uk sports section there was about 20 differen threads just for the 12pt tipping comp so 2 threads here should be ok

[tod1999]

Saturday 2nd January 2010

After planning this diary since early december when i awoke this morning i was feeling good about getting things underway. Waddled off into the kitchen to put the kettle on for my morning caffeine fix, coffee with 2 sugars and 7 milks (hey i like it milky)

For some reason the house was totally quiet which is very rare considering it is 9.45am Then it clicked that i was only one on the house as the rugrats stayed over at there grannies and the other half was away shopping at the crack of dawn........house to myself

Fired up the lappy and down to business, First thing i did was look to see what was going ahead and what was being postponed, after a good scout about the sites it was clear to see that only fa cup games were going to show any promise with the majority of all the other games being called off.

First thing that stood out was Notts Forest vs Birmingham, 2 teams in great form and on long unbeaten runs. 2 teams who like to keep it tight a the back and take whatever they can get in attack. This looked the perfect opportunity for laying overs then backing back again. The game had 0-0 or 1-0 either way all over it

overs was 2.48 to lay which was a little bit more than what i was hoping for but obviously i wasnt the only one who knew this game wouldnt have many goals. I laid away at 2.48 for £200 with the intention of trading out after 15 mins or so if still goalless

The thing with the overs/unders markets is they over-react way to soon if there isnt an early goal and i knew after 15 mins i could be trading out for £30-£40 profit no problem

Odds drifted out to 3.00 just after the 15 minute mark and i backed the overs for £155 which left me with a small profit if the game turned into a goalfest and a bigger decent sized profit if the game went as expected and had few goals...

Overs: +£13.70
Unders: +£42.75

Game ended 0-0 and a good start to the year... +£42.75

Halftime of the bolton/lincoln game had arrived and with scores at 0-0 it seemed lincoln were giving a good account of themselves and never had much to worry about.

Bolton were 1.50 to lay so i laid away for £50 with the intention of backing back around 1.70 (57th-62nd min) for around £6 profit

This was a huge mistake and one of the worst things you can possibly do whilst trading, you just dont lay teams who are massive home favs who are level at HT. The fans are on there backs and the manager will have tore into them at halftime and the only outcome is the home side coming out firing looking for the early goal......

Now im not saying they always get that goal but having to wait 12-17 mins to make a profit when its a premiership team vs a lge 2 team is just wrong and was a mistake

Bolton of course came out of the traps flying and within 5 mins of the second half were 2-0 up, Backed bolton @ 1.05 and just took the £22.50 loss, saved myself £2.50 by trading out

-£22.50

Now at this point after forest/birmingham had ended 0-0 I had had 2 bets with 1 succesful trade and was looking at a profit of £20.25


Liverpool team was announced and was alot stronger than i expected and were 1.46 to back which seemed like a good opportunity to make some cash considering if liverpool score the first goal they will plummet to 1.10-1.15 which is around £90-£100 profit. With liverpool out of everything else (apart from that mickey mouse europa thingy) surely this was liverpools chance to give something back to the fans and actually put on a performance against a championship side who have one of the worst home records in the league

The mistake i made here was thinking that just because liverpool really had to win this match that they would, "having" to win a match does not turn a crap side into a good one so it was still are woeful football team that had to go out and win and odds of 1.46 now just seems like an absolute embarrassment Reading took the lead which didnt really bother me too much as i really thought liverpool would be level aby halftime (and they were) and would crack on in the 2nd half

scores level at 1-1 halftime, 2nd half liverpool were even more pathetic and the team that has relied on 2 players for so long (gerrard and torres) seems to be crumbling fast as those 2 players just do not look one bit interested in playing for liverpool. Torres has been awful by his standards all season and has spent pretty much every game whinging like a little baby and gerrard just looks like he has given up hope and would rather play anywhere than at anfield.

All that said with world class players like torres and gerrard (although playing dreadful) they are still capable of turning a game so I left the bet alone hoping to trade out if they went ahead, if reading had of went 2-1 up id have cut my losses and traded out. game ended 1-1 for a £300 loss and just another stupid bet that should never of been placed considering how poor they have been all season and the fact that i never actually wanted them to win the match and take huge enjoyment in them losing

Could always see goals in this game so i backed the overs @ 1.85 for £100 with the intention of trading out after an early goal

reading went 1-0 up and i trading out @ 1.46 leaving a small profit for unders and a bigger profit if the game ended overs like i expected. Was fully expecting a liverpool equaliser in the first half and should really have waited to trade out but got itchy fingers and wen ahead with it. liverpool did equalise and overs went to 1.17....

In the end this didnt make any difference as the game ended 1-1 but if there was another goal then i would have done myself out of £28 by getting out too early

in the end i made a paltry £4.25 as there was no more goals

-£295.75 on this match


At this stage of the evening I had had 4 bets with 2 succesful trades and was -£275.50 and was feeling seriously pissed off


Missed the start of the darts reading the rugrat a bedtime story, got to it with the scores at 1 set a piece and whitlock was 1.89 to lay, Not sure why he was fav as i hadnt see nthe 1st 2 lgs but i laid away for £50

barney won the 1st leg in set 3 and whitlock shot out to 2.52 during the 2nd leg and i backed him for £30 was gave me +£19 on a barney win and +£1.05 on a whitlock win


Litle bit laer on whitlock was back down to 1.85 to lay so i did for £25, backed him back a few mins later at 2.02 for £25 to give meabit more profit on a whitlock win and i was now sitting at barney win +£19 and whitlock win +£5.09 after 2 winning trades out of 2 on the darts

with sets at 2 a piece barney was 1.80 to back and as i was fully expecting him to win the set i backed away knowing if he won the set he would drop to around 1.40-1.50

with barney 2-1 up in the set i laid him @ 1.56 for £50 which was lockin in another £11.40 profit on a barney win and nothing more on whitlock (couldnt see whitlock winning)

3 winning trades out of 3 and my darts was looking like this.....

barney win: +£30.40
whitlock win: +£5.09

Barney was 4-2 up in sets and looking good for the win and here i switched my atentions to the football where atletico were hosting sevilla

i laid overs here pre k.o @ 2.01 for £200 again with the intention of trading out after 15 mins or so with the game still goalless

After some some calculations i decided to back overs at 2.40 for £167.50 and wait to get matched......A match would result in £30 profit

just after the 13 minute mark still at 0-0 I was matched and a £30.88 profit was locked in whatever the result

+£30.88

8 bets up to this point with 6 succesful trades and the liverpool result still annoying the feck out of me...

switched back to the darts to see what score barney won by.......

He never won, he lost 6-5. 4-2 up he lost 3 sets in a row to go 5-4 behind, levelled up at 5-5 but lost the final set to lose 6-5

typical barney and instead of +£30.40 it was just +£5.09


Days Profit/Loss: -£239.53



Total Bets: 8
Winning Trades: 6
Total P/L: -£239.53


As I close for the day the liverpool result is still really annoying me and a reminder to leave the stupid bets for the mugs out there. 1.46 was just a pityful price for an away side as bad as liverpool are

Wake up tomorrow and it will be forgotten about and I will go again looking to end the day profitable

Over and Out

[munk]

to be fair 2 threads in this part of the forum isnt going to cause any trouble, this section has hardly any new threads with the 1st page having half the threads not posted in for 6 months

Im just having one for the diary and one for the actual bets/trades, as you can see from the bets thread there is already alot of mumbo jumbo and i dont want the diary like that i want it to be easy to read and follow

hope this is ok but i cant see any problems, in the uk sports section there was about 20 differen threads just for the 12pt tipping comp so 2 threads here should be ok

As I said yes it's fine as long as we don't get more than a handful of people all doing the same thing, otherwise it would get very confusing and messy.

Good luck with your trading diary, hope it picks up after the Liverpool fiasco. Just reading through that diary, are you taking part in the Team TGT diary? Ah I see you are already but not til 19th february! Wow hope you have some good stuff left by then, quite liking reading this diary so far

All the best.

[tod1999]

Day 2 entry........

Sunday 3rd January 2010


This is the 3rd attempt of trying to enter the days events and i cant really be bothered spening another 1 hr+ doing it all again so this will only be a brief insight into the days events unfortunatly


The plan was to have a load of low risk high reward bets where losses would be small and wins big. The days events got underway when i seen the starting lineups in the man utd/leeds match.

Just because it says "man utd" bookies always over react and offer donkey prices and there was no way that starting 11 was 1/4 shots to beat leeds. if i was backing man utd id want at least 8/11 but im never geting that so I wouldnt back them. I laid man utd @ 1.26 for £100,

I dont really like trading on my own team but im knowledgable to know when there price is wrong and this was one of those times. Beckford gave leeds the lead on 19 mins and against my better judgement i immediately trading out and greened up for £31.45 In the back of my mind I was screaming at myself to let the bet ride until at least halftime and look at things then, At the front of my mind all i was saying how i was writing a diary for all to see and the best thing to do is lock in some profit to make me look good.

If I leave it and man utd score and then go on to beat leeds im going to look stupid not taking the profit once it presented itself! Once you leave yourself wide open to people your mindset changes and if i wasnt writing this diary i would not have traded out at that point and as soon as i raded out and greened up i knew it was a big mistake and have to get out of the mindset of taking any profit ASAP just to look good in the diary!

If i stick to how i do things then i will actually make more profit so need to remember that rather than trying to look good and get prfoit locked in ASAP!

During this time celtic were rangers and was heading into HT with the score at 0-0, I laid HT draw @ 1.19 for £100, 30 secondsl ater samaras shot 2 inches wide of the post and celtic also went on to have another couple of decent chances but couldnt take them and it was 0-0 HT -£19


66 mins on the clock in the celtic game under 1.5 goals was trading at 1.28 which seemed to good opportunity to make abit of cash, still 0-0 in 10 mins would see at least a tenner so i backed under 1.5 goals for £100

After awhile i was really starting to sense a goal coming so i traded out and laid under 1.5 goals @ 1.12 which left me +£15.80 on under 1.5 goals and 0.00 on over. I couldnt see there being 2 goals in the last 20. Straight afer this I laid 0-0 @ 1.80 for £50 and within 90 seconds celtic had scored and locked in £47.50 profit

Rangers went on to equalise so the £15.80 i had locked in on under 1.5 goals was gone but i neverl ost anything as i was sitting on 0.00 for overs. With the game heading into the final stages i laid the draw @ 1.09 for £50, celtic got a corner which i was hoping would turn into a goal but it never did and ended 1-1 -£4.50

Attention then went back to the man utd/leeds match and with 67 mins on the clock another goal to be scored was priced @ 1.42 and with the game end to end it looked a decent bet. Beckford shot inches wide and snodgrass smashed the crossbar from a freekick, man utd also missed a couple of glorious opportunites to score and it ended 1-0 -£50

I missed the start of the 3.00pm k.o's making myself and the little fella a sandwich and when i got back to things chelsea had taken an early lead over watford and were 1.06 so i liad them for £200 with the hope of a watford equaliser, chelsea raced into a 3-0 lead after 21 mins and was apparent they would win easy -£12

Hibs/hearts had unders all over it and with 6 mins gone i laid overs @ 2.81 for £200, 15 mins later on 21 mins i backed overs @ 3.75 for £132 to leave me with +£64.60 on unders and +0.95 on overs. I was always going to back overs again once it drifted out to get things looking a little better on the profit side if this game was to take an unexpected turn and become a goalfest. I backed overs on 36 mins for £10 @ 5.00 which left me with +£54.60 on unders and +£39 on overs

With this game heading into halftime goalless i laid HT draw @ 1.08 for £100, hearts scored in the 46th min to land £95 profit

I noticed QPR were 1-0 up against sheff utd and was going to lay them HT win but as i was typing in the bets thread i missed it and needless to say sheff utd scored in the 46th min and i did myself out of £95 profit which would have seen me make £190 in under 2 minutes.

By this time the baby was getting hungry and i was sent to make a bottle and by the time i had boiled and cooled the water and made the bottle and then fed her i had missed the 4.00pm la liga k.o's and missed out on laying overs pre k.o with the hope of trading out after 15-20 mins, all 5 la liga games were still goalless and that was another £100+ i had missed out...... kids eh!

halftime was approaching in all the la liga games and 4 were 0-0 so i liad the HT draws @ 1.09, 1.09, 1.08 and 1.07 all for £100 with the hope pne would have a late goal, all 4 ended 0-0 and -£33 malaga were 1-0 up at s gijon and i was going to lay them HT win but something cuaght my eye in the hibs match i was watching and i missed it and needless to say shef utd scored in the 46th min and i had done myself out of another £95 and in the last hr £290 profit had slipped by!

Hibs and sheff utd matches were coming to an end and scores were 1-1 in both so i laid the draw @ 1.15 and 1.13 for £100, both games ended draws -£28

west ham/arsenal was heading into injurytime and i laid HT draw @ 1.08 for £100, diamante scored in injury time to land £95 profit, i was going ot back the draw which had gone out to 200 for £2 but the market closed before i got matched

Now with west ham 1-0 up over arsenal at halftime i revert back to last nights lay of arsenal at 1.72 for £200. Arsenal were 3.85 to win so i traded out and was looking like this.... +£25.65 arsenal win and +£133 arsenal dont win

I left the bigger profit on arsenal not winning as at this stage i didnt expect an arsenal win, if anything west ham would make it 2-0. Intop the 2nd half arsenal were starting to the turn the screw and had a few near misses i backed them at 6.40 for £8 which left me looking like this..... +£66.69 on an arsenal win and +£125 if they dont win

Arsenal made a couple of changes and notl ong after got their goal, and then i was really sensing that ut was not the ned of goals and if anyone would score it would be arsenal so i went to back them foir £15 at 3.50 but just before i was matched the market was suspended as arsenal had gone 2-1 up, now if this was matched i would have been +£102 or +£110 which would have ben alot better now it looked arsenal would win. arsenal did win so i made £66.69 from this trade but another couple of seconds id of had an extra £36

3 la liga matches were level going into the 90th min and was just waiting a few ticks before laying the draws, almeria then went and scored in the 90th min before i laid the draw and i mjust missed out on £95 again by seconds, i laid the other 2 games @ 1.09 and 1.11 and both ended a draw so -£20

with arsenals match heading into injurytime i laid under 3.5 goals @ 1.06 hoping for a late goal, it never came so -£6

mallorca/bilboa was heading into halftime at 0-0 so i laid the draw @ 1.07, stayed 0-0 so -£7 Imissed the majority of the wolves match going out and then eating takeaway, when i got to the game it was 1-0 wolves so i laid under 1.5 goals with the hope of a late goal @ 1.09 for £100

tranmere had a couple of chances but a lack of composure seen the game end 1-0 and -£9

[munk]

bollox, was just writing all yesterdays events which had took 45 mins and was 3/4 way through, went and deleted the post by mistake before posting it


now have to do it all over again so will be here in about 1 hrs time


edit: 2nd time i wrote is out but i just edited this post and after 90 mins instead of clicking save edit i clicked on post reply completely forgetting i was in edit post mode and my post dissapeared, so i have now spent over 2 hrs typing and still havent got the entry in the diary

ffs!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Use a windows editor to do it - like notepad or wordpad - and copy/paste it into the forum. That way at least it's harder to close the window and lose the lot (it will ask you if you want to save it before you can nuke the window). Is very annoying when that crap happens though I know what you mean.

[tod1999]

Had to do it in 2 parts, i typed it all out (for the 3rd time) and it said it was too big as i can only post 10,000 characters and it was 12200 ........


Attentions then turned to the final of the darts where the power was taking on simon whitlock, now whitlock fully deserved his place in the final after beating world numbers 2 and 3 in wade and barney and also knocked out good players like osbourne, jones and jenkins. Taylor the same asevery year got a bye to the final with his only decent opponant being aidy lewis but lewis always get hammered by taylor on TV so no surprise he lost 5-0, going into the final taylor had only dropped 1 set after winning 3-0, 4-1, 5-0 and 6-0 which shows the calibre of his opponants. It was the same last year when he played no-one until meeting barney in the final

I was sure whitlock would give taylor a real game and wouldnt give 2 hoots about taylors rep and wouldnt just roll over and bottle it like every other dart player that plays taylor. I thought if whitlock could get 2 of the opening 4 sets it would boost him so i laid taylor @ 1.14 for £200

2-1 down in the 3rd set i backed taylor @ 1.22 which left me with +£12.47 on taylor and +£12.35 on whitlock

i again went and laid taylor @ 1.27 for £200 and with sets at 2-2 whitlock was 1.27 +4.5 sets which the way the game had gone looked a sure thing so had £50 on it which seemed a straight forward £13

with whitlock on 25 taylor took out a superb 161 finish which totally rocked whitlock and could se if affected him, taylor then went to take out 167 to win the set

It was looking like taylor had it in the bag now and at 3-2 in sets i backed taylor to win 7-3 @ 4.20 and 7-4 @ 4.8 and had £20 on both

in the 6th set with whitlock on double top for the set i backed taylor at 1.18 and took an £18 loss on my earlier lay at 1.27, but as i had already locked in over £12 on taylor it was less than a £6 loss

Whitlock missed tops and taylor won the leg making it 2-2 before winning the 5th leg to go 4-2 up in sets, things could so easilly have been different if whitlock hits tops its 3-3 instead he missed and got punished ending up 4-2 down..fine margins!

from here i really needed whitlock to win another set and at 6-2 wasnt looking too likely but in the 9th set he played really well and was 2-1 up in legs then the craziest leg of darts ive sen in a long time happened with neither player being able to hit a double and after taylor missed 9 darts at a double whitlock finally took the 9th set and was 6-3, taylor won the 10th set to land his 15th world title and i made £60.40 profit on 7-3 scoreline but as i backed 7-4 too for £20 it was £40.40 profit from the corect score bets and as whitlock won another set it got £12.35 on him +4.5sets

By this time i was getting death stares from the mrs who had been waiting 90 mins to watch a dvd so it was time to call it a day but not before backing vinnie jones @ 4.20 to win CBB for £161 (ill review this in a few days)

Days Profit/Loss: +£249.36
Overall P/L: +9.83

Very happy with the days events and the fact yesterdays losses have gone, couple of things ive learned is the low risk trades shouldnt really be applied to la liga games as there is hardly ever an injury time with 5 of the 7 matches ending before the 46th min and one game the ref blew up at 45.02. This isnt new to me as i watch alot of spanish football and it is the norm for the refs to blow up for HT before 46 mins hits the clock so maybe leave those bets from now on

I also think it would be better to plan the days events in the morning and take it step by step, today was a mad rush following dozens of in-play games and i missed out on over £300 profit by not having time to keep up with everything, all in all a good day


Over and Out

[munk]

Had to do it in 2 parts, i typed it all out (for the 3rd time) and it said it was too big as i can only post 10,000 characters and it was 12200 ........

Yes it is annoying sometimes, I've had it on several occasions but usually I can just break it up into smaller bits and post it as separate posts. I don't know why we don't just increase the post limit, not sure if there's a downside to it. Suppose it's actually better to have a max of 10k cos it makes it more readable that way.

Great report though, thanks for that, glad you pulled it back a bit yesterday. Actually quite tempted to try trading on the darts, have been watching a bit of darts for the first time just over the last few days and it's actually quite enjoyable.