FA Cup Sunday - trading thread

[musicbox]

Inspired by frankbutcher (kudos to him), this thread is for general thoughts, strategies, trade posting and final trading results for this Sunday's live FA Cup fixtures:

Reading v Aston Villa (1.45pm)

and

Chelsea v Stoke (4pm)

Both games will be aired live on ITV. Good luck!

[srh1984]

My initial thinking is to lay Chelsea....but will update nearer the time Was fun last time (thanks Frank)

[advanta]

My initial thinking is to lay Chelsea....but will update nearer the time Was fun last time (thanks Frank)

Could you explain your reasoning? My thinking was the absolute opposite. I figure the early Chelsea line will be determined by sharp money, but the weight of mug money pouring in nearer game time will be to back the public team (Chelsea). This could create an arbitrage opportunity near kick-off.

[Landprofits]

Could you explain your reasoning? My thinking was the absolute opposite. I figure the early Chelsea line will be determined by sharp money, but the weight of mug money pouring in nearer game time will be to back the public team (Chelsea). This could create an arbitrage opportunity near kick-off.

Are you saying the Sharp money will go on Stoke? Can I ask why?

[LFC81Eoin]

I just noticed this thread , I would lay Villa , I just don't rate villa that highly and i think they'll struggle , i'd lay and see how the game goes i can't see them scoring early .

Can't see any value in the Chelsea match , wouldn't back or lay them at that price , can see a 2-0 win for chelsea but there short and it might take them 45 mins to break down Stoke , don't need that stress.

[srh1984]

Could you explain your reasoning? My thinking was the absolute opposite. I figure the early Chelsea line will be determined by sharp money, but the weight of mug money pouring in nearer game time will be to back the public team (Chelsea). This could create an arbitrage opportunity near kick-off.

Nothing was definate as I said that was my initial thought wthout looking kore closely. Chelsea are without their keeper and without cashley, Stoke IMO are a strong side and by laying chelsea I would be looking to trade out if it stayed nil nil or if Stoke were to score early..... Even if Chelsea were to score earlier at such a small price the liablity would be something I could afford to lose

I'm by no means an export on football nor trading but will update on any future tips hehe

[Human123]

Chelsea wont win by more then 2 goals, stoke arent pushovers...

So lay chelsea but back 1-0,2-0 and 2-1 with a view to obviously trading out depending how the game is going.

[Andy]

-£16 if Portsmouth win (they are 2-0 up now)

Stupid occupation

[dw39]

Managed to lock in a guaranteed £37 on the Portsmouth game, green across the board on BF looks nice.

My first real 'trade bet'.

[bold_eagle26]

My first move on the pompey game was to lay under 1.5 goals at 1.26 just before the hour mark. Pompey went 2nil up so the first lay was a winner. I went in again and laid under 2.5 goals at 1.65 with about 20mins left to play as Birmingham were pushing for an equaliser. The linesman cost me a nice pay day as the 3rd goal shouldnt of been dissallowed imo. No harm done, -£16 quid so far today but confident I'll make that back and some more.