Weekend football - trading thread

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If you want to post up strategies, thoughts or trades on any of this weekend's games, you can do so here.

I'm looking at two specific PL games and two specific scenarios in order to get involved.

1. In the Hull v Fulham game, if Hull take the lead then lay them.
2. In the West Ham v Stoke game, lay whichever team takes the lead.

Looking at some basic stats, Hull, West Ham and Stoke have a 50% or less success rate in converting first goal leads into wins. As I've said before, I'm new and shiny to trading but this is some sort of basic strategy I guess!

[zenmaster]

One thing i have noticed check out Mallorca v Barcelona

Mallorca Played 13 won 12 lost 1 at home this season in the league.
Barcelona have lost one game all season in La Liga possibly due one?

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Thankfully I wasn't able to get involved after all or my strategy would have backfired in both games!

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We'll leave this thread open for the remaining weekends of the main football season so anyone trading on the footy on the 3rd or 4th April, you can 'do your thing' below

[LeonardHatred]

I tend to do a load of trading before the games kick off, and try and tidy things up before it starts. Occasionally I have an awful mess left and have to go in-play, or take a big hit.

Anyway, a few observations by myself:
* The Tottenham price of 2.2 on the exchanges is too high. I would expect this to come in to at least 2.12 tomorrow before kick-off.
* Man City also look decent value - currently at 1.73, this should move into 1.71 tomorrow.
* Blackburn are 2.2 at the moment. Portsmouth have some long-term injuries, a very small squad, no luck and are bottom of the league. I would get in there. The price should come down to 2.16 tomorrow morning.
* Put a back on 0-0 for the Man Utd - Chelsea game and lay it at 10 mins into the game. What tends to happen in this games is that they are incredibly cagey and the event gets to the players. Don't be surprised to see it 0-0 at half time and open up in the second half.

Disclaimer - I am not Mystic Meg and cannot predict the future, so these are just my guesses. If I fail miserably, then at least I tried.

[Andy]

* Put a back on 0-0 for the Man Utd - Chelsea game and lay it at 10 mins into the game. What tends to happen in this games is that they are incredibly cagey and the event gets to the players. Don't be surprised to see it 0-0 at half time and open up in the second half.

I have done similar but gone for the Draw.

Initially (last few days) built up value on it from the churn, backed 10 points at 3.3 in the queue, when matched sit 5 points at 3.25 in the queue, when matched back 5 points at 3.3 and repeat. Either after first back is on lay is not matched never mind I wanted that back anyway. If lay is taken great more value overall, then repeat. Its that kind of idea and over a few days on a big game if you start to stagger the bets but monitor it will get a few swings before kick off.

THEN after 10 mins start to lay it off up to 40mins played. The odds will be coming in enough to take profits. There may still be a goal but it is not as ruthless as backing 0-0 which just loses, backing the Draw means if the other team equalises you are still well in profit and also even if they dont you have an hour to consider your situation and cut your losses if you want. You dont just lose like you do if you back 0-0 then bang 4th min goal!

Disclaimer - I am not Mystic Meg and cannot predict the future, so these are just my guesses. If I fail miserably, then at least I tried.

Couldn't have said it any better.

[LeonardHatred]

I tend to do a load of trading before the games kick off, and try and tidy things up before it starts. Occasionally I have an awful mess left and have to go in-play, or take a big hit.

Anyway, a few observations by myself:
* The Tottenham price of 2.2 on the exchanges is too high. I would expect this to come in to at least 2.12 tomorrow before kick-off.
.

Cough, cough. Note to self - never ever put money on Spurs - they always let you down.

* Man City also look decent value - currently at 1.73, this should move into 1.71 tomorrow.

Price has just come in to 1.65, so this has come true.

* Blackburn are 2.2 at the moment. Portsmouth have some long-term injuries, a very small squad, no luck and are bottom of the league. I would get in there. The price should come down to 2.16 tomorrow morning.

Price came in to 2.12 this morning, so I got this right as well.

* Put a back on 0-0 for the Man Utd - Chelsea game and lay it at 10 mins into the game. What tends to happen in this games is that they are incredibly cagey and the event gets to the players. Don't be surprised to see it 0-0 at half time and open up in the second half.

First goal came at 20mins, so another correct.

So, I make that 3 out of 4. I cocked up on the Spuds game, and made a £100 loss on that as I let it go in-play and Sunderland happened to score the fastest goal of the season Overall, though I'm in profit to the tune of £38.41 so far; but I stand to make £60 if Man City win though

[LeonardHatred]

I have done similar but gone for the Draw.

Initially (last few days) built up value on it from the churn, backed 10 points at 3.3 in the queue, when matched sit 5 points at 3.25 in the queue, when matched back 5 points at 3.3 and repeat. Either after first back is on lay is not matched never mind I wanted that back anyway. If lay is taken great more value overall, then repeat. Its that kind of idea and over a few days on a big game if you start to stagger the bets but monitor it will get a few swings before kick off.

THEN after 10 mins start to lay it off up to 40mins played. The odds will be coming in enough to take profits. There may still be a goal but it is not as ruthless as backing 0-0 which just loses, backing the Draw means if the other team equalises you are still well in profit and also even if they dont you have an hour to consider your situation and cut your losses if you want. You dont just lose like you do if you back 0-0 then bang 4th min goal!



Couldn't have said it any better.

What I did notice is that when the game went in-play, the odds on 0-0 actually went up! Off the top of my head they were 14.0 just before the start and immediately jumped up to 15.0 and hovered around 14.5 for the first 4 minutes.

[sofaking]

Had a fairly successful day with those games too. Layed the draw in the Man U v Chelsea game and made a decent profit (backed draw just after Chelsea scored). Also layed the draw in the Pompey game (was expecting goals) and didn't fully trade out so made a loss there.

Backed City before kick-off and they scored three quick goals so I didn't bother laying them off.
Also made profit on Barcelona and Porto so a decent day's profit..

Any comments on tomorrow's games?

Think I'll back Everton to beat West Ham at 1.45 now. I reckon that price will drop before it kicks off.

[LeonardHatred]

I don't know anything about the lower league football, so probably will not bother today. I assume there will be goals in the Newcastle game though.

[sofaking]

Nobody trading here anymore? I had a terrible World Cup but am slowly building my account back up.