World Cup outright

[musicbox]

I've just seen a chat convo discussing the merits of backing Holland outright taking into account their odds and whether those odds are made high because of the fact we have the other semi tonight featuring two sides who probably shouldn't be any higher on the outright than they are (ie, the suggestion is that Holland is higher than they should be).

If you look around, maybe there is better but I've put £1k on Holland @ 2.54 on Daq (2.5%) which gives, after commission, a payout more in line with odds of 2.5. When matching off, either Germany or Spain would have to be <1.67 on the outright after tonight's game for me to lose out. Surely too short?

Ok, so Holland have never lifted the trophy... but that's true of Spain. And we all know the history between the Dutch and the Germans! Spain/Germany may go in favourite but Holland has been on a run of unbeaten games for a while now so if the winner of tonight's game settles more around 1.8 outright then it's a 4.7% arb which could net a 3 figure sum easily. Of course, it may not and it may turn out to be a total waste of bankroll but hey... if you can't do this every four years...

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Edit: Well, didn't quite work out eh?! The bookie @ Expekt who suggested 1.6 would be the first outright price for the winner of Spain v Germany was spot on and over the days they were anywhere from 2.63 down to 1.56 on Daq.

Read some thoughts that early money had gone on Spain post Germany game and that they would lengthen to kickoff but this didn't materialise so it became worse to trade out the longer the waited in reality.

Suppose most doing it may have had a book running which would absorb some of the loss or done some offer like McBookie (I had my £20 on Spain) so things probably weren't too bad hopefully. One book did have 1.7 on Spain which was a get out but can't really rely on small books to be out of line on such a big game too often and if diciplined early on then even a large stake wouldn't have been to bad a loss.

As an FYI and this was never about going in-play but HT odds (0-0) still pretty much same as at kickoff - even though Holland didn't look to far out of the game, they were on so many yellows that it was unlikely they could come in I guess.

FT (0-0) they had come in and small profit but still Spain around 1.68/1.69 and ET HT 1.72-1.74 but that was never the 'play' here as it was pre-game trading.

[LFC81Eoin]

Thanks for that , why didnt you just copy my exact chat with Andy and post it here , you copy exact figures aswell , may aswell just of posted it on mse .

[musicbox]

Hi Eoin, this is trading talk involving the most basic trading theorising you can get and unless Martin Lewis himself posted what I posted, then I don't think MSE reading such a post has any bearing at all - after all, posts have been amde there previously (closed down of course) about something looking long and everyone can see it's not guaranteed profit, it's gambling which is very un-MSE. (And Expekt just said 1.6 on the winner tonight is a good guess for outright so I'm slightly scared now)

Seriously, if it was remotely secretive or ground-breaking then not only would I not have posted and I assume the convo would have been conducted by pm rather than chat where hundreds will see it. I did not realise your chat was meant to remain uncommented on or that no-one could start a thread but either way, it was not an intention to 'steal' a good idea (or what might be a bad idea, who knows).

As for figures, then the figures are just what's there now and draw conclusions using basic maths so they are not going to be different.

So the theory is in this section already available to the public and will be scattered across countless sites - and the specific bet isn't going to be adversely effected by my post. So please don't feel worried at all by the existence of the thread, it has no bearing on anything in reality.

[LFC81Eoin]

Musicbox I just speak my mind and when i was chatting with Andy in the chatbox and seen your thread then my reaction was "is he serious ? he never joined in the chat and comes on here posting a thread with exact same info"

I traded sucessfully for a long time , i dont do it because of the monotony of it anymore , but it suprises me to hear you say "most basic trading theorising" all trading is basic , back high lay low is ultimately it , but you cannot teach the ability to spot an oppurtunity .

Obviously this or any other bet could go totally wrong and both me and you could lose money tonight , thats trading .

Listen just forget it