BP Shares

[Clackerooney]

Not as much trading as spread betting but seems to fit here, feel free to move though.

As everyone knows BP shares took a pounding after the oil leak but have been steadily picking up again with a nice spike this morning with talks of a takeover & of progress in plugging the leak.

The big day seems to be the 27th July, they'll announce their quarterly profits and hope to announce the leak is plugged or relief well is made. If they can announce good news on this day the shares have got to go up.

I've made some money off straight £10 a point spread betting on them over the past week or so & have a sum to put back in so here's the plan..

Do all the opening account offers like paddypower trading, victor chandler financials etc.. open a big £50 a point on BP on the 26th with a stop loss of whatever the moneyback offer is £300, £200 or whatever.

If they announce the leak is plugged there'll be a 50 point rise at least (my opinion and I'm no expert). They accounce profits are bad, no takeover and they're no where near fixing then your stop loss kicks in and nothing lost.

That's the plan, seems good to me but I'd be interested in hearing other opinions before I go balls deep.

Cheers

[Andy]

I have bought and sold several times during the decline from late May onwards. Most recently buying in far too early at 384 and still too early at 345 only to see them go down to 298. They have bounced to 398 now and I will get out (hopefully tomorrow) at 410.

I think they will struggle to get over 420 short term the good news is now factored in. Also I dont think they will actually have success or failure on that day it will be known in advance and priced in. You will get a price hike if a bid emerges though, but that will come out of the blue.

Your general strategy is a good one though I think but it will take quite a lot of margin to have decent stops in place.

Using the same strategy I think you could pick one of the small Falklands explorers where you get a window where you know they will report, I would sell them around that time they are all hype and even an "OK" report will see them tank. Worse case is they hit a gusher, well its a good job you set a stop loss then. I would do that over buying BP.

[Clackerooney]

Also I dont think they will actually have success or failure on that day it will be known in advance and priced in.

After reading a few reports in the paper it's been made out that this is a make or break day. My master plan didn't take into account the news would be known in advance & factored in.

I'll look into the tip on falklands explorers (never heard of them tbh, but I don't really follow this stuff). Basically anything with a big make or break announcement would fit, I don't want to get buy or sell something that'll sit there.

I'll probably still get involved again around the 27th but maybe not to such a large extent. I've thought of it now so would kick myself if they shot up!
Thanks,

[Andy]

Live feed of the spill and capping process:
Live feeds from Ocean Intervention III - ROV2

They just capped it!

After hours trading on the Nasdaq (Grey market) has risen and NY closed up anyway:
BP p.l.c. (BP) After Hours Trading

So BP "should" open up and spike to 420 based on that/now. I dont see what new news other than a bid will really help/suprise anyone?

Example of when an explorer reports with bad news (actually it wasnt even bad), down 50% today: http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=7221768

[Clackerooney]

Live feed of the spill and capping process:
Live feeds from Ocean Intervention III - ROV2

They just capped it!

wehey! That's a nice spike to wake up to. I'm hovering about now trying to decide if I should close my £10/point from last week before I leave for work.

Thanks for links & info, I'll be looking into these markets a lot more now.

[hippocrates]

ExxonMobil got White House Approval to bid for BP, that might have some impact on share price.

[Andy]

Results out tomorrow,

I think it will be flat, no bad news can be there not already expected they have already said they will pay all costs and signed $20Bn over to Obama in a shakedown.

No unexpected good news will be there either, Haywood leaving has been announced today, the leak was capped and stopped spilling last week, I cant see what they can say thats good and not known?

So if it moves more than 10% either way I will be suprised. But they might, I am pretty much out now anyway, bought too soon to get the big profits and sold at 410 so just under current highs. Will get back in if they drop to 360ish but that may well never happen.

[Clackerooney]

The relief well being completed should send a spike up but then I got out at 415 after the cap went on.

I had enough riding my luck so was quite happy to cash in my chips.

I'll get back in again at maybe only £5/pt this time if some bad news comes in & they drop 40p or so, like a leak pops up before the relief well is complete.