Betfair Trading

[BFTrader]

Unfortunately I have come across this site at a bad time, and by "bad time" I mean in the fact that the european football seasons have just ended.

There is still abit of football going on whilst the european leagues are on holiday and they are the scandinavian leagues such as the Norwegian, Swedish, Finnish & Danish etc ec..

There is also plenty of South American football but I tend to stay away from that as it can be very erratic


Now I would like to use the next 6-8 weeks to help other users out and give a little insight into how I go about making my money on Betfair. I am hoping to share a few strategies and also give people some advice on what to get stuck into and what to avoid and hopefully in 6-8 weeks I will have shared enough knowledge that we can get stuck into the new european football season.

Now I am not going to make out I am some sort of expert when it comes to the scandinavian leagues (Because I am not) The English Premiership, La Liga & Serie A are what I know best and I know them well, but in the close season I do like to keep ticking over and look to make abit of pocket money on the side.

I keep stakes alot lower than I normally do during the european seasons and any profits are a bonus really used to enjoy the summer


Later on I will post a few things I think alot of people "do wrong" when they log into the betfair site and i will share my knowledge on a few strategies that have served me well but right now I just want to point out a few opportunites in todays football where I think there could be some money made.


Finland Veikkausliga- MyPa v VPS Vaasa 4.30pm

LAY OVER 1.5 GOALS @ 1.40 FOR £150 (£60.00 Liability)

Alot of people if they looked into the stats for this bet would see that 4 of MyPa 5 home games have ended over 1.5 goals and 4 of VPS Vaasa 5 away games have ended over 1.5 goals making 8 out the 10 games over 1.5 goals (80%)

What alot of people would do here is just stop looking at the stats, see that it has happened 8 times out 10 so far this season and just pile in with their money thinking they are onto a "sure thing".

What most people will fail to realise is that these 2 teams are both really struggling to score goals themselves. MyPa have failed to score in 4 of their 5 home games and VPS Vaasa have only scored 2 away goals in 5 games, failing to score in 3. So if you now look at how many times these teams have scored in the 10 games you will see that in the 10 games they have only scored in 3 which means that 70% of the time so far this season these 2 teams are failing to score a goal.

I really really hate BACKING these kind of bets and IMHO offer absolutely NO VALUE at all. If you are BACKING this market then every single minute that passes without a goal those odds are going to drift and drift and get higher and higher and that price you backed at pre KO justs starts to look worse and worse and worse.

When it comes to the low prices I am much more of a LAYER than a BACKER. The thing with laying low prices is if the bet does'nt go you're way then you're losses are always small and minimal as you laid at a low price and if it does go you're way then you're winnings are always far greater to you're liabilty, plus there is always the option the "trading out" and locking in you're profit.

I am starting to go off course here so I am going to stop and say I will go into detail my thinking about what you should be backing/laying later on and just now get to todays bets i think have a chance of making some ££££'s


Can I just point out here to those who dont have a betfair (trading) account and just use normal bookmakers then a bet for this game would be "Neither team not to score" @ 5/6 with most firms. Like I pointed out earlier, both teams are struggling for goals and in MyPa's 5 home games NONE of them have seen both teams score a goal and only 2 of VPS's 5 away games have seen both teams score so 8 out of the 10 games "neither team has scored"

[BFTrader]

Norway Tippeligaen- Aalesund v Rosenborg 6.00pm

No pre K.O bets here but this is definately a game to watch in-play and maybe jump on a couple of chances to make some money.

4 of Aalesunds's 5 home games so far have had a goal in the 1st half and 4 of Rosenborgs 5 away have had a goal in the 1st half so 8 out of the 10 matches have had a least 1 1st half goal so far this season.

Also when you look at the head to head stats between these 2 sides you will see a high trend of 1st half goals with 12 of the last 14 games between these 2 sides the match has seen a 1st half goal. The last 7 matches in a row at Aalesunds ground have seen a 1st half goal.

After digging into the stats and looking at the trends then a 1st half goal in this match does seem HIGHLY likely but it is'nt a bet I would be looking to get on early. Pre KO you can odds of around 1.33-1.36 that there will be a first half goal but I would much rather wait and get on at a better price whilst inplay. Obviously if there is an early goal then we miss out on an opportunity but we have'nt lost any money.

We are expecting a 1st half goal and our hope is that that goal comes in the latter stages of the 1st half 25-45th min

Here I will be keeping an eye in-play and I will be looking to jump on a 1st half goal if still 0-0 around 30mins or at around even money



Norway Tippeligaen- Tromso v Lillestrom 6.00pm


Again this is a match with no pre KO investment. It is one to watch whilst inplay and depending on the scoreline we can hopefully jump in and bag a late goal.

All 6 of Tromso's home games this season have seen a goal scored after 74.59 and all 6 of Lillestroms away games have seen a goal scored after 74.59

so all 12 games so far have seen a goal scored from the 75th min onwards and 5 of those 12 have seen 2 goals scored in the remaining 15 mins so I will be looking to back a late goal here if the price is right and also have a dabble on 2 goals if I think there is some value

something happening 5 times out 12 relates to a 2.40 chance but obviously the chances of 2 goals in the final 15 mins are alot higher than 2.40 but if I am getting the odds I would like I will jump in

[BFTrader]

Finland Veikkausliga- MyPa v VPS Vaasa 4.30pm

I have traded out of this bet now. I have backed over 1.5 goals @ 1.49 (£125) Scoreline MyPa 1-0 VPS after 56mins

Under 1.5> £24.00
Over 1.5> £1.15

[BFTrader]

Little further trade just to get overs in touch to cover the late goal. Laid Under 1.5 goals @ 1.15

Under 1.5> £21.14
Over 1.5> £21.19

Not the profit I was looking for but I wil take it. Another 10 mins would of seen me make the £45-£50 I was looking for

[BFTrader]

Norway Tippeligaen- Aalesund v Rosenborg 6.00pm


Still 0-0 after 27 mins I have laid HT 0-0 1.82 for £100 (£82.00 liability)

[BFTrader]

Penalty rosenborg

[BFTrader]

0-1 Rosenborg

£96.00 in 4 minutes


Was happy with the lay of 0-0 as Im watching the game via an online stream and it has been end to end and both sides could easily of scored. Once it got to around 22 mins I started to look at the prices as I thought a goal was coming. Laying @ 1.82 means I am getting ods of 2.17 (after comm) that a goal will be scored which I was happy with considering the way the game was going

[BFTrader]

Finland Veikkausliga- MyPa v VPS Vaasa 4.30pm

LAY OVER 1.5 GOALS @ 1.40 FOR £150 (£60.00 Liability)

Alot of people if they looked into the stats for this bet would see that 4 of MyPa 5 home games have ended over 1.5 goals and 4 of VPS Vaasa 5 away games have ended over 1.5 goals making 8 out the 10 games over 1.5 goals (80%)

What alot of people would do here is just stop looking at the stats, see that it has happened 8 times out 10 so far this season and just pile in with their money thinking they are onto a "sure thing".



a bet for this game would be "either team not to score" @ 5/6 with most firms

Those who just saw that 8 out of the 10 games ended over 1.5 goals and went piling in at 1.40 will be left red faced. The game ended low scoring as I suggested (MyPa 1-0 VPS)

This is one of the mistakes I was talking about earlier, people dont look hard enough at the info in front of them. They just see 8 out of 10 have ended over 1.5 goals so are happy to back at 1.40

Dig a little deeper and see both teams struggle to score goals then you are going to be shooting at a nice 3.50 shot (laying @ 1.40 is the same as backing at 3.50).

40%ROI loser or 250%ROI winner

[BFTrader]

Norway Tippeligaen- Tromso v Lillestrom 6.00pm

Tromso 1-0 Lillestrom after 75 mins


Backed over 1.5 goals @ 2.06 (£50)

Backed over 2.5 goals @ 6.20 (£10)

[BFTrader]

placing the bets in the lillestrom game and by the time i got to the rosenborg match there had been a goal in the 77th min.

Was just about to get on odds against