I think Fedex is overpriced at 6.4 on Betfair.
He's in the bottom half of the draw & his main opponent (Djokovic) has been knocked out. Nadal & Murry are both in the top half of the draw.
Federer is perceived as being weak on clay but that is not true. It merely appears that way because:
- He's SO good on other surfaces
- Nadal is SO good on clay.
But in fact Fedex has steadily improved on clay & has reached the French open final for the last 3 years (losing to Nadal on each occasion).
Not only that, but in the Madrid Open (clay court tournament just before the French Open) Federer won, beating Nadal in the final & ending Nadal's 33-game winning run on clay.
I think Federer will at least make the final & if he does I expect to be able to lay off at less than 6.4, even assuming he faces Nadal. (If that happens I would lay just enough to recover my stake if Federer lost so that I could cheer him on to win). And of course there's always the very outside possibility that Nadal gets knocked out in which case Federer's price would tumble.