Federer overpriced in French Open Tennis?

[Fella]

I think Fedex is overpriced at 6.4 on Betfair.

He's in the bottom half of the draw & his main opponent (Djokovic) has been knocked out. Nadal & Murry are both in the top half of the draw.

Federer is perceived as being weak on clay but that is not true. It merely appears that way because:

- He's SO good on other surfaces
&
- Nadal is SO good on clay.

But in fact Fedex has steadily improved on clay & has reached the French open final for the last 3 years (losing to Nadal on each occasion).

Not only that, but in the Madrid Open (clay court tournament just before the French Open) Federer won, beating Nadal in the final & ending Nadal's 33-game winning run on clay.

I think Federer will at least make the final & if he does I expect to be able to lay off at less than 6.4, even assuming he faces Nadal. (If that happens I would lay just enough to recover my stake if Federer lost so that I could cheer him on to win). And of course there's always the very outside possibility that Nadal gets knocked out in which case Federer's price would tumble.

[s0095063]

So that's 15.5% chance of winning the tournament, right?

I'd say those odds are about right - given Nadals previous against Fed in the French open, but like you say, if you were looking to trade off in the final then i think it's quite likely he'll get into the final.

BTW did you make a decent profit on Britains got talent last night?

[Fella]

I made some profit but I was really only fiddling about with beer money for a bit of interest (I mug punt or maybe trade quite often but it's rarely for anything other than shrapnel).

Fed @ 1.67 to make the final also looks outstanding to me so I may nibble on that too to breakeven on my outright punt if he makes the final.

[bristolcity]

Cheers for the tip Fella.

Had a little dabble @6.4 and its already dropped below 6.

Think I will leave it a round or 2 and see where it is then.

[lemonlyman]

good call Fella!
you knew Soderling would do that, right?!

[Fella]

Lol, whodda thunk it?!

Fedex now 2.34 outright so easy enough to lay for no loss or lockin a profit

Murray slashed down to 5.7 on the outright market, he was about 30 earlier today.

[Andy]

I think its because Nadal is out.

[Fella]

It certainly is, Soderling beat him in 4 sets earlier. Which was handy!

[Andy]

Wish it took five sets I had that in the PaddyPower refund. Better still it looked like he may retire hurt at one point which would have been a £180 windfall here but no such luck

[KingColly]

Great tip Fella. Got no financial interest in this market but am loving the fact that Nadal is out because it gives Murray a better shot at the tournament.

Did anyone watch the Nadal Soderling match this afternoon? Watched it on the "red button", and admittedly Nadal wasn't at the top of his game, but there was some incredible hitting from Soderling!