Long Term Arbs - (Prem 09)

[LFC81Eoin]

I think you will definitly win your 240 quid in saying that , i find the more i am getting into this matched betting the more money i need , 1100 is alot of money for arbing and reloads thats just sitting there .

To give you an idea , sunday morning i found a monster arb and was raging that i had to load up moneybookers with my credit card because all my cash on the internet was already in play , that is more than 15k in play at one time , between us books asians and exchanges i had no money to get freely . I would not put 1100 away for that length as i think it would cost me money over time .

Thats just me of course , you may well be happy with that and i think liverpool will run united close next year , don't think chelsea or arsenal will do anything , nobody outside the big four can win it .

UOTE=Procrastinator;174340]Cheers for that...


I'm not sure if I have done the right thing, but I have gone for this long term - value bet (not arb as it could go very wrong)

I have bet on the following:

Man U 3.1
Chelsea 3.6
Liverpool 4.5

Total stake £1100. If any of them win I get £240 profit. If anyone else wins, well, I cry, a lot.

Was this a good idea? I don't know, ties up money for a while, but then I'm happy with my £GBP float as it is (don't have time to need more) and I'm not willing to buy any more $USD for the US sports books as I feel I have enough exposure there. So if it wasn't on this bet it would be sitting in the bank.

I see this as a value bet. Had I taken those 3 at say Bet365, I would have got odds of 1.066. Having taken it across 3 books I have got odds of 1.22.

You could even include arsenal in their for extra safety and still have a locked in profit of £120.


Those odds are still there if anyone else wants a go.

Anyway, flame me now![/QUOTE]

[fudge]

Not quite at home in a matched betting forum but always interesting to hear people's take on things! I would say that's pretty safe, I can't see Arsenal or ManCity (imo, a lay on ManCity at 16's on betfair is great odds - there's still a large part of the transfer window left but I can't see them doing any better than UEFA cup again this year) getting close, but then I have a feeling Arsenal were pretty long odds at the start of the season when they won it a few years ago.

At the end of the day, it's your money, you've gotta be able to accept that there's a possibility you could lose it and be able to afford to take the loss on the chin. Not something I'll personally be doing but I know of people that lump huge sums of money on a team when they're 3 nil up or something at half time. wouldn't have wanted to do that in the U19 euro semi's would ya now...

[Procrastinator]

I know it is a long time, but oh well, just seemed like such great odds for that outcome. I don't have enough time to properly utilise the money I currently have in my Matched betting pot, so this won't damage my profitability on that side of things.

I know I may loose it all, but my profits are already in excess of this amount, so cest la vie. There is a risk to going in and out of slightly less reputable books too, but we all still do it.

I'm undecided if this was a mistake or not - That probably depends on how the start of the season goes! I know anything can happen in a game of ftie, but imo a season long bet is a bit different, quality and squad depth should win through. I hope!

[Andy]

If I was placing that bet I would do it at Betfair, mainly because I can over time trade those teams, whoever is in the lead as time goes on lay them incrementally, you will cut into your profit, but its unlikely one team will take the lead and stay there with no challenge. As other teams catch up and/or they chop change you can back it back again, and repeat.

No real skill to it, but basically using betfair you can increase your profits by taking advantage of any volitility. You will only lose out if one of your teams takes the lead and just stays there, but even if that happened you could have layed on the way down to make £100 still, so its £100, thats not a terrible result. But I expect you can trade the volitility over that period of time quite effectively.

[munk]

I have to say I'm half tempted to start a long term book on the football outrights this year. Last year I took 3 bets at various places and like a tw@t ended up losing out on all of them because I kept refusing to lay them even when the chance arose (could have had chelsea 3.5/1.8, cambridge 12/7 and arsenal... forget now but could have had a profit there too). Each time I kept thinking nah... taking up float for too long, will wait til it goes lower... but that never happened.

So... if there happen to be some offers on the outright markets again this year I might take them and use an old betfair account dedicated to it to lay them off.