Long Term Arbs - (Prem 09)

[Andy]

I usually have at least one long term market on the go at once, there are several reasons for this:

Long Term markets are fairly easy to find arbs on, they exist for a number of reasons the main one being the length of time before the event is settled means if the return is under a certain % and it is tieing up £ks for that long your money is actually better off in the bank / being used elsewhere.

There are usually several long odds outcomes which means it is relatively simple to "dump" freebets I recieve into there and the liability is spread, so it does not cost me any more funds and there is a chance I dont pay commission if it wins as well.

The Drawbacks are it is very easy to forget where you placed the back bets and it just gets lost (well I seem to manage that every year). It does take up a lot of capital. It ties up the funds for a LONG time.

I am thinking of doing it on the Premiership market this year anyway and seeing what happens. Each Sunday it is usually possible to have a quick scan and find one or more teams odds have come in enough based on results to now be arbed vs a bookmaker who has not updated the lines yet. And anyway I will use it to dump freebets anyway.

At the moment there are a ton of exact matches at various bookmakers vs betfair and also you could get some more if you actually queued at betfair at the current back odds. Even taking actual lay money available now though there is:

Chelsea at Betterland 4 vs 3.6
ManCity at 24hPoker 40 vs 26
Portsmouth at Skybet 1001 vs 930
W Ham at Expekt 1001 vs 900
Fulham at Expekt 2001 vs 980

So clearly arbable BUT it takes up a £1.5k float in Betfair really, although you can combine liabilities a bit as it goes on, getting just £2 on Fulham and laying it for £2 as well costs more than that.

So anyway, there we go, a bit of a chat about the Pros and Cons of Long Term arbs, and from now on any other Big ones I spot I will put in this thread just in case anyone else is doing the same.

Are there any other benefits? Drawbacks? Things I have missed? Discuss....

[fudge]

I did it on the French Open women this year (not the men cos the odds were shit cos of clear favourites and not Wimbledon cos it seems the bookies are much tighter on their lines) and made about 150quid from Kuznetsova winning, I had enough bets on that I'd have made about the same from Safina and about 100quid if no one I'd bet on had won.

This was mainly arbing with a few offers (money back if Serena won or something like that) but no free bets from what I can remember.

So yes, imo it is a good idea, though I doubt i'll do the Prem cos again the odds are shit. A free bet on anyone but the top 4 ties up massive liability for a year. I'd do the CL ahead of the Prem. Had a great year when Liverpool beat AC, 250quid of freebets went on the English teams and AC Milan, laid off later on got me about 500quid of profit I think.

The only reason I'd do the prem this year is if some bookie does outragous on a team before the start (paddy with chelsea last year or the year before at 5-1 springs to mind) making it more profitable to bet than not to bet in the long term. Then you might aswell have a book on it cos you're making money without tying up more money. Though weather I'd bother doing the Fulham, Wetspam etc bets is debatable....50quid on chelsea at 6-1 ties up 250quid, not £2000! and 2000quid for basically £1 profit (they're not going to win, they're 2000-1 for a reason!) doesn't seem worth it to me!

[munk]

This brings one thing to mind - using a dedicated Betfair account to separate your long term liability from your day-to-day liability and ring fence funds for the longer term markets.

I might have a dabble with long term books this year, last year I tended to have 2-3 outright EPL back bets that I left and left and left and the time when I should have locked in a profit came and went and never came back again. If I do the same again this year I will try and be more disciplined in trading out for a profit when the opportunity comes up.

Recently I'm having fun with 'medium' term books say on Wimbledon or the US Open golf (didn't actually like that so much, seems much more of a lottery). Quite nice to get a half dozen selections in the market that you trade on over time as the market goes on over the 2 weeks or 3 days or whatever to get into a position where you're greened up.

[fudge]

Also, who are betterland? link?

[Andy]

www.betaland.com

[fudge]

www.betaland.com

ah, you can't spell!

[Procrastinator]

Hi Andy, where about is the prem title on that betaland site? Can't find it....

[musicbox]

For me the drawback is the one you've covered - having to tie up funds for a long period of time. If I'm thinking "straight" matched betting, I doubt I'd tie up large sums for long periods of time because, in all likeliness, the profit I make from it is still going to be far inferior to what my tied up money could make in a smaller time frame. I've found that the quicker money moves, the higher the turnover I achieve, the more the profit I make. However, perhaps having one set liability at BF and dumping the freebets on the same market as the season progresses may work out as a good system (hopefully so if you do it!).

That said, and even if it's mainly about profit making for most, maybe you like to set aside a portion of funds where it's more about fun, trying out new things, trading, gambling or whatever. Maybe you think, based on experience, that a few books tend to payout on a result even before it's been determined (say Paddys payout out on Utd winning the Prem even though they mathmatically could lose) and there's just some chance you can make it work for you later on if it happens. Or maybe some books offer promos which you know will tie into your outright long-term bet and you'll be able to lump more on then because you've got this £1k liability or whatever already @ BF.

Other drawbacks are ones covered by basically any betting at a book. Players took 70/1 on Button F1 outright market @ SBG and, after he won the first 2 races, they voided bets (which weren't at erroneous odds) and offered for them to be reinstated @ 10/1. Obviously, if you had laid off @ 60 or something then you'd be in a mess.

Another would be that the longer your money is tied up, the increased chance of a book collapsing and although this may not mean your back bet is lost since there may be a takeover, it may mean that if it won, you'd then have a 3x rollover or whatever.

[Andy]

Hi Andy, where about is the prem title on that betaland site? Can't find it....

It is under AntePost Football, or this link might work:
betaland - online Sports Betting

The odds have moved since the original post was made though. You can still arb there but its on ManCity now at 36 vs 19.5

[Procrastinator]

Cheers for that...


I'm not sure if I have done the right thing, but I have gone for this long term - value bet (not arb as it could go very wrong)

I have bet on the following:

Man U 3.1
Chelsea 3.6
Liverpool 4.5

Total stake £1100. If any of them win I get £240 profit. If anyone else wins, well, I cry, a lot.

Was this a good idea? I don't know, ties up money for a while, but then I'm happy with my £GBP float as it is (don't have time to need more) and I'm not willing to buy any more $USD for the US sports books as I feel I have enough exposure there. So if it wasn't on this bet it would be sitting in the bank.

I see this as a value bet. Had I taken those 3 at say Bet365, I would have got odds of 1.066. Having taken it across 3 books I have got odds of 1.22.

You could even include arsenal in their for extra safety and still have a locked in profit of £120.


Those odds are still there if anyone else wants a go.

Anyway, flame me now!


EDIT: HHHmmm, 36, tempted to put £20 on that to cover some of the damage they could do.... Those are very high odds and that is quite an arb, bf is at 17.