StereoMike's Show Us Your Colours Challenge

[StereoMike]

Well I was all ready to be bemoaning another poor weekedn but...

Arsenal were hosting Wolves and after Chelsea's earlier win, the hope was for a white wash to close the gap in goal difference. However, as we reached the 93rd minute I thought all dreams of the title (no matter how small) were gone completly. Then Bendtner scored and I was as happy as I was when Fab stroked home the penalty midweek. I was on at 1.27 @ BF so no major profit but at least a win before we visit Spain on Tuesday.
Current Pot: £5.97 Total Invested: £24.83 Current P/L: -£18.86

Meanwhile Norwich visited Tranmere on Friday night and I was hopeful for a continuation to a winning run. But once again the TV curse struck. I was out so missed the surprise 3-1 defeat but that didn't help me with my loss at Expekt at odds of 1.85. Next up in Stockport on Monday and a chance to get back on track.
Current Pot: £19.01 Total Invested: £11.07 Current P/L: £7.94

[StereoMike]

Following last weeks draw I had a hope that we could really upset the form book and walk away from something away to Barca. When we went 1-0 up my head was finally starting to agree with my heart and the 9.2 I got at BF was looking good. Alas, it wasn't to be and once again we get knocked back. With just the league to concentrate on now the question is can we win it and can we turn a profit on this challenge? Next up is S**rs away next week.
Current Pot: £0.97 Total Invested: £24.83 Current P/L: -£23.86

Meanwhile Norwich hosted Stockport on Easter Monday hoping for a quick return to form after their surprise loss on Friday night. Whether or not form was returned is debateable but they did pick up all 3 points and I won at odds of 1.23 @ BF. Next up is the MKDons at home and with only a handful of points needed to gurantee promotion, it could be a good game.
Current Pot: £21.10 Total Invested: £11.07 Current P/L: £10.03

[StereoMike]

When I started this challenge at the start of the season I honestly thought it could turn a profit. Yet with just 4 games to go and the two teams sat 3rd and 1st in their respective leagues, to break even is now the target!

After a week off and following S**rs FA cup exit after 120mins on Sunday, everything was looking good for one of those games that you really don't want to lose. Many things didn't go right and in the end we lost at odds of 2.32 and I received a barrage of texts from 'friends'. We have just 4 games left and I would guess 3 of those will be at less than evens so I can't see anything but a loss but maybe there will be yet another turn and we could still win it?
Current Pot: £0.00 Total Invested: £28.86 Current P/L: -£28.86

Meanwhile Norwich seem to be doinge everything in their power not to get promoted! After the Leeds game the pot sat at nearly £40. However, just one win in the 4 following games and all of a sudden the pot is decimated. Since my last update they sneaked a last minute (sound familiar?) draw against MK and then lost against relegation strugglers Leyton Orient (ironically a game a few weeks ago ear marked as the day they would go up in some quarters). If they can turn it round and win 4 on the bounce then we can turn a profit but at this rate it looks like being a stumble across the line.
Current Pot: £5.27 Total Invested: £11.07 Current P/L: -£5.80

[StereoMike]

Defeats to S**rs and Barca were dissapointing but last weekends loss at Wigan was probably the most depressing match I have ever seen Arsenal play. At 2-0 up with 10mins to play the points should have been safe but even before the first goal I could see us dropping points and sadly that was the case. Another loss and a bigger dent in the losses of the challenge. Next up is Man City at home, can we regain some pride?
Current Pot: £0.00 Total Invested: £33.86 Current P/L: -£33.86

What made the defeat worse was the fact that a mear 24hrs earlier I had been celebrating Norwich's promotion. At the start of the day a seemingly impossible combination of results was required given NCFC recent dip in form and the fact Swindon were at home to a team with nothing to play for. However, the results did come in and promotion was sealed with a 1-0 win that also led to me winning at 2.78 @ BF. Next up is Gillingham at home tomorrow with just a point guranteeing the title although I will obviously be wanting to see all 3 go to Norfolk.
Current Pot: £9.76 Total Invested: £11.07 Current P/L: -£1.31

[StereoMike]

Well the Arsenal run of form didn't improve any at the weekend. I didn't actually get to watch the match but sounded extremely dull and of course was another loser, this time at odds of 2.0 at Sky. Just 2 games left for the season and I think that the players are already on holiday! Next up is Blackburn away.
Current Pot: £0.00 Total Invested: £38.86 Current P/L: -£38.86

Meanwhile Norwich secured the League 1 title a week after promotion. I was at Elland road for the Leeds v MK match so was surrounded by people wanting a loss but fortunately two late goals chips away with a bit more profit as I won at 1.50 @ Ladbrokes. Next up is the final away game of the season at Bristol Rovers.
Current Pot: £12.20 Total Invested: £11.07 Current P/L: £1.13

[StereoMike]

Another game, another loss for Arsenal. Since getting knocked out of the Champion's League we have got just one draw out of 4 games and I really can't wait for next year. Final game is against Fulham and the hope is they rest their best players for Europe League final (who ever would have thought we'd be relying on a mid table team to rest players to get points?)
Current Pot: £0.00 Total Invested: £43.86 Current P/L: -£43.86

I had half expected the Norwich game to be a bit of a failure as well as the title is wrapped up and I saw them maybe taking their foot off the gas. Luckliy they wanted to play for pride and were able to walk away 3-0 winners at Bristol Rovers with me being on at 2.30 @ Lads. They now play at home to Carlisle on the final day.
Current Pot: £20.23 Total Invested: £11.07 Current P/L: £9.16

[StereoMike]

Well the season has now finished and both sides of the challenge ended in losses. £42.86 lost on Arsenal and 96p on Norwich. The question has to be how a team that came third in the top flight and reached the 1/4 finals of the Champion's League and a team that won it's league failed to turn a profit.

Arsenal played 55 games this season and won 33 of them, including runs of 6 and 7 wins on seperate occasions. The problem has always been the poor odds offered on given our tag as favourite. Only 19 games saw us above evens and we only won 5 of those. In total the average winning odds were 1.54, when we lost they were just 2.87 but that was driven by the away match in Barcelona! The final thing that killed this challenge (and Arsenal's title challenge) was the fact that there were only 2 wins in the final 9 games. The final question is what would have happened if we had bet a flat £5 on each game? If we had done this I would have ended the season with a loss of £18.06, an improvement on what I actually won!

Meanwhile, Norwich played in 54 games, winning 33 (almost identical results to Arsenal). The best run was 8 wins at the turn of the year but in general the results were much more varied and this was one of the primary reasons for ending with a loss. Despite being the runaway league champion's by season end, the early season drubbing by Colchester and subsequent jittery start coupled with the fact that less money is traded in this league, left better odds. When they won games, the average odds had been 1.91 which helped build up funds much quicker than was the case with Arsenal. Had they won the final game of the season then we would have had a profit so it wasn't a complete damp squib but had we just bet £2 on each game we would have ended with £15.91 profit.

If nothing else the system has been an interesting exercise in following one's team, albeit with a disappointing ending! Maybe next year I will look for something else which offers better value than straight match odds!

[munk]

Very good summing up. I gave up on this one with ManU for pretty much the reasons that you've highlighted (poor odds on majority of games due to being favourites), all it takes is just the occasional loss and you've wiped out a large chunk of float. In hindsight perhaps it would have been better to pick and choose which games to back them in rather than blindly back them each time.

Another question is whether you got the best value for each bet as well, all things being equal if you bet on the best value each time then you should be up overall if you bet on them enough times.