Champions League top goal scorer.

[82GAMESTER]

I was taking a look at the latest football odds last night when I happened to stumble upon some value in the Champions League top goal scorer market. The competition's top scorer is Christiano Ronaldo, he is on four goals. The chasing pack are made up of a few players on three goals and lot's two goals. Ronaldo is a very short price (9/4 in some places), especially when you consider he's out injured. He has an ankle problem he picked up earlier in the competition. From what I read about the injury a few days ago it's not looking good for him. He has missed Real Madrid's last seven games and is expected to be out for another three weeks. He is set to miss at least one more Champions League game. Real Madrid aren't certainties to qualify for the knockout stage either especially if they fail to win at home to FC Zurich in their next game. The chasing pack of goal scorers is where the value lays. There is one stand out player that has scored two goals so far and another that looks good value who has three.

Didier Drogba is 14/1 with Totesport , he is the stand out player and is actually as short as 8/1 elsewhere, he is 9.4 with Betfair. He missed the first three games of the competition this season due to a ban he received for his conduct in the Semi-final last season. He played his first game of the competition this week and scored twice away at Athletico Madrid. Drogba is the second favorite to finish top goal scorer in the Premier League at a relatively short price (Generally 3/1), he is almost the same price as the favorite in that market Fernando Torres. Drogba has scored 12 times in all competitions this season whilst Torres has only managed 10. The interesting thing about the Champions League top goal scorer is that compared to the Premier League where all the teams play the same amount of games, in the Champions League the most successful teams play the most games. Chelsea were very unfortunate to get knocked out against Barcelona last season in the Semi-final and they are currently joint favorites with Barcelona to win the competition this season. I expect they will at least make the Semi-final of this season's competition, they are clear at the top of the Premier League. Drogba looks set to continue in the same rich vein he's started the season in, having a ratio of two goals per game in the Champions League this season makes him the competitions joint most prolific scorer in terms of goals per games. He holds that title jointly with the injured Ronaldo. Chelsea will visit Porto in their next game in the competition and it's likely Drogba will be the favorite to score, there next game see's Apoel Nicosia visit Stamford Bridge and again Drogba should be the favorite. Drogba has bagged 36 goals in his last 42 games for club and country. There looks to be value on backing Drogba with view to laying him later on in the competition.

The best English sides tend to frequent the final stages of the Champions League. Arsenal sit second in the Premier League. They have the Champions League's joint second top goal scorer in Cesc Fabregas, he is only one goal behind Ronaldo having scored three goals already. Fabregas is 40/1 with Coral to be the competitions top goal scorer. Arsenal are in amazing form right now and Fabregas is the clubs top goal scorer this season having managed nine in all competitions, that is only one goal behind Torres. Arsenal face easy opposition in their next Champions League game, Standard Liege visit the Emirates. Fabregas will most likely be one of the favorites to score in that game. There looks to be value on backing Fabregas with view to laying him later on in the competition.

Bookmakers offer Each Way terms of 1/4 of the odds on the top four goal scorers. If you backed Drogba Each Way at 14/1 and he finished 2nd, 3rd of 4th then you would still get back 5/4 on your total stake. Backing Fabregas Each Way at 40/1 and him placing in the top four would yield a return of 9/2 on your total stake.

[musicbox]

As long as you qualify from your group, does it matter whether you finish 1st or 2nd? Just wondering because if there's no real importance (ie, the next phase is not seeded) then, as Chelsea are already through regardless of results in the last two games, is it feasible that Drogba simply won't play? Chelsea play Porto away on Weds 25th and play away at Arsenal on the Sunday. And on Tues 8th Dec. they play Apoel and have Everton on the Saturday so with the likes of Kalou and Sturridge in the squad, maybe a good opportunity for them to get the nod in those CL games?

Edit: mind you, saying that, I probably would want him to feature for at least 45 minutes so he was ready for the following Premier League games. Either way, I would still think he's good value as you say.

[wndllll]

Yeah, if you finish 1st in your group then you face a 2nd-placed team in the next round. I'd have to agree about the worry of Drogba being rested if/when Chelsea seal top place in the group but otherwise 14/1 does seem a very good price! Nice post gamester, I'm having a bit of that.

[82GAMESTER]

It is possible that Chelsea might rest Drogba for one or both of their remaining group games. Though there is an importance attached to who wins the group so I expect they will field a side that reflects that importance. In the first knockout round the group winners are drawn against the teams that finished second in their groups so that means they will likely face easier opposition if they win the group than if they finish second. Not only that but the group winners play the second leg at home, this is almost considered universally to be an advantage for a number of reasons.

(The eight group winners and eight runners-up from the group stage are drawn into eight pairs of home-and-away matches. In this round, teams from the same group, nor teams from the same association, may not be drawn with each other. Group winners play the second leg at home.)

I expect Drogba will start in Porto as it is important that they don't lose the game, Porto aren't a bad side and sit just one point behind Chelsea.

[musicbox]

Thanks for clarifying that. So, with that being the case, I agree he would likely start against Porto as a win would seal 1st and 2nd leg home advantage for the next stage. And I would think the good thing is that if they only drew with (or lost to) Porto, even the game against Apoel would still be a live one in trying to seal 1st. Little wager on Drogba top GS here I come

[tod1999]

good shout on drogba....think he should make top 4 depending on how far they get so e/way should show a profit.....

ronaldo cant be ignored, by the time the knockout games start im sure he will be back fit and scoring goals, negatives for ronaldo are the odds which are way to low for my liking and the fact real madrid arent actually that good and may not even reach the 1/4 finals depending who they get in the knockout game (if they get through)

van persie appeals at 28's, arsenal looking good this season and a decent draw could see them reach the semis at least, next game is home to standard liege where a win will guarentee top spot. Arsenal will 100% be all out attack to win this match........why?

because winning this match guarantees top spot which means they can rest every single player for the away game in greece at olympiakos, and who do arsenal play in the premier league straight after the olympiakos game????

away at anfield vs liverpool so you can be assured arsene wenger does not want to be needing a result away in greece with liverpool away 4 days later

arsenal i can see beating liege by 4/5 goals at home and van persie is in great form and could score 2/3 here, fabregas also in with a good shout, he has 3 CL goals already and could easilly add to that in the liege match so ive had a bit of him at 40's e/way (10/1 top 4)


whichever odds compiler priced berbatov at 40/1 needs his head read (should be closer to 100/1) and i nearly fell off my chair in shock when i seen ibrahimovic was only 16/1.......i wouldnt back him at 50/1 with someone elses money

[82GAMESTER]

Tod1999,

Robin Van Persie is in with a fair shout of finishing in the top four, he's only scored once so far though. He is in great form, I backed him in the Premier League top goal scorer market before the season started and I'm feeling optimistic about him scoring a lot of goals this season. Last season he got 20 goals from 44 games in all competitions, I think he's looking set for his best ever season this term. He is the Arsenal free kick and penalty taker which should help. He will be the favorite to score when Standard Liege visit the Emirates later this month. Arsenal could easily put four or five past them.

Cesc Fabregas has a slightly better goals per game ratio for Arsenal than Van Persie does this season, they have both played thirteen games for Arsenal, Fabregas has scored nine times and Van Persie has managed eight. You would expect Van Persie will score more goals overall this season though. When you consider that Fabregas already has three goals so far in the Champions League and Van Persie has just one, the 40/1 on Fabregas looks really good value.

[musicbox]

VP is a good shout. With Adebayor leaving and, touch wood, an absence of injuries, he is a class act who should be getting amongst the goals from open play and from pens/free kicks as pointed out. Plus, it doesn't hurt to be fronting such an attacking side which creates so many chances.

[musicbox]

Van Persie likely to be out for 2 months after ankle injury in the game against Italy last night Will he ever have an undisrupted season?!

[tod1999]

its becoming a joke now....

van persie out for months that will seriously cost arsenal and lampard probably wont play again this year for chelsea...

all for the point of meaningless pathetic firendlies