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Beat-The-Odds
Bolton vs Fulham: Lay Fulham @ 3.85 (L2L 5pts)
At first glance when you look at boltons form you see they have lost 3 of the last 4 games, once you look at those results you will see it was arsenal x2 and liverpool and 2 of those defeats were away from home. If you take out those 3 losses to top opposistion then its just 1 defeat in 7
Bolton have lost 5 of their 12 home games, but when you look at 3 of those defeats were against chelsea, arsenal and liverpool then you can understand it as there is no shame in losing to these 2 teams.
Fulham are just rancid away from home and have been in awful form of late, they did scrape a 1-0 home win over pompy midweek which put an end to 5 straight defeats but were hardly convincing and extremly lucky the goal stood. They have only won 1 away game all season and that was on the opening day away to pompy and that win was also lucky with the goal coming from a massive deflection after the ball was going about 15 yrds wide. Fulham did beat bolton at the reebok 3-1 last season but this year fulham are not the same team and are really struggling with injuries, A Johnson has just been ruled out for the season and the 3 goalscorers for fulham last season in this match will not be lineing up for fulham today.
L Orient vs Brighton: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.02 (2pts)
10 of orients 14 home games have ended over 2.5 goals this season including 7 of the last 8 with an avge of 2.92 goals p/g. Brightons 14 away games have resulted in 8 overs including 6 of the last 9 with a higher avge of 3.28 gaols p/g. History of goals between the 2 sides also with brightons last 3 away trips to orient resulting in 2-1, 2-2 and 1-4 scorelines for an avge of 4 goals p/g. I Would price up overs in this game around 4/5 so there is definaely some value in the bet. If you had 2pts at evens on all of orients home games and all of brightons away games this season you would be 16pts in profit.
2010 Grand National Ante Post: Big Fella Thanks @ 20/1 ladbrokes 
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was waiting on team news in the merseyside derby and now it is in.....
Liverpool vs Everton: Lay Liverpool @ 2.02 (L2L 3pts)
Liverpool are starting to get some results even though not playing too great, they are unbeaten in 6 winning 4 but when you look at the likes of the oppo, wolves x 2, stoke and bolton then it isnt too great a deal and are expected tp ick up pts here. Everton have been in great form unbeaten in 9 winning 4 of last 5.
drew away to arsenal and comfortably took care on man city 2-0 could have been 4 or 5. Can definately see everton geting something from the game but seing how its a derby game lower stakes than ususal on the lays at good odds, just under evens on everton not losing is a good price
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 Originally Posted by tod1999
L Orient vs Brighton: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.02 (2pts)
10 of orients 14 home games have ended over 2.5 goals this season including 7 of the last 8 with an avge of 2.92 goals p/g. Brightons 14 away games have resulted in 8 overs including 6 of the last 9 with a higher avge of 3.28 gaols p/g. History of goals between the 2 sides also with brightons last 3 away trips to orient resulting in 2-1, 2-2 and 1-4 scorelines for an avge of 4 goals p/g. I Would price up overs in this game around 4/5 so there is definaely some value in the bet. If you had 2pts at evens on all of orients home games and all of brightons away games this season you would be 16pts in profit.
This is when your at your best todd , you seem to be able to pick out bets like this all day long , If i was as good as picking these as you id definitly try a big acca with about 5-7 of these bets .
I'm not betting myself but surely Birmingham are well overpriced at around 1.95 to beat wolves?? It looks a bit big to me although i don't have statistics or anything but i would of imagined that price to be 1.8 ish
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yes m8 birmingham seem a great price but you just never can tell in derbies, yestersday merseyside derby was a great example...
liverpool 10 men after 34 mins and if you came in at HT and watched the 2nd half you would never of thought in a million years liverpool were a man down, It was comfortable for liverpool it was embarassing and everton were rancid and just cant do it in the big games
schoolboy error not checking who the ref was, had i done so i wouldnt have laid liverpool as atkinson is a shocking ref and yesterday was dreadful from start to finish....
Ive done ok in the past with goals bets, i used to pick 7 games alot and do 5,6,7 folds (29 bets) as long as 5 came in won profit and 6 was a nice profit with 7/7 superb
first day of last celtic i had £5 on 10 games overs and 9 came in with 1 game 1-1 for what would have been just under £3000 
onto todays games..............
Lay of the Day
Udinese vs Napoli: Lay Udinese @ 2.50 (L2L 5pts)
Udinese currently sit 17th in Serie A just 1pt outside the relegation zone. No wins in last 7 league games losing 4. Won just 1 game in 11 which was home to 15th placed Livorno. Napoli having a great season in Serie A sitting 4th but just 2pts off 2nd. In a great run of form unbeaten in an incredible 15 games and unbeaten in last 7 away. Napoli have lost 4 of their 11 away games but 2 of those games were against champions Inter and 3rd placed roma so no shame in losing those matches, the other 2 away defeats were against a very strong at home genoa and cagliari. Wrong team are favs to win this match IMHO and even if it doesnt go my way it still feel the bet is a right one...
Inter Milan vs Cagliari: Lay Inter @ 1.45 (L2L 1pt)
This may seem a strange one seeing how Inter haveo nlyl ost 1 of last 15 matches winning 11 and only dropped 4pts at home all season after 9 wins and 2 draws. Cagliari on their day are a decent outfit and play some good football and are unbeaten in 6 league games and lost just 2 of last 13 league games which were away to good sides in milan palermo. On heir day Iner can smash anybody but laying inter @ 1.45 is 11/5 they wont win and i think it is worth a pt on a decent 11/5 shot. Even if you lay Inter to trade in-play. Im sure they will be higher than 1.45 at some point
Udinese, Tenerife and Villareal Lay Treble @ 2.73 (1pt)
after comm we are getting around 13/8 that 3 these teams will all fail to win and there is a good chance all 3 will fail to win today...
Udinese reasons are above and the following reasons are for the other 2....
Tenerife 19th in the league with just 1 win in last 12 league games, they lost last week at home 3-1 to zaragoza and that was zaragozas 1st away win of the season so to lose at home to such dreadful travellers shows how poor form they are in. They have only picked 2 away pts all season afer 7 defeats and 2 draws and find goals tough away from home scoring just 6 goals in 9 away games and have shipped 23.
Osasuna have won 3 on the bounce and are in good form. They are tough to beat at home with just 3 home defeats all season and they were against 3rd, 4th and 5th placed valencia, sevilla and mallorca. Osasuna really shouldnt be losing this match
Villareal not in great form with just 1 win in 5 games and that was at home to 18th placed zaragoza who then hadnt won a single away game and had the worst away recod in the league so it was an expected win. Just 1 away win all season for villareal which was back in Dec.
Mallorca on of those teams that are like night and day when it comes to playing home and away, home they are solid and away they are rancid (my new word lol) Home they a 100% record with 9 wins from 9 which is superb for a league like La Liga and have only conceded 4 goals scoring 25 
away they have lost 6 of their 11 games and won just once, if they could sort out away form they would be a real force in this league. Im happy to lay the away team who have won just 1 of 11 away games against a team who have won 9/9 at home
the reason i havent just laid all these teams individually is because i only like to risk a certain amount each day and if i was to lay them all we are looking at big liabilites.
others i fancy not to win are st etienne and deportivo, strong stats for both that i havent got time to post but below is the lay price of todays lays i think ae good value...
Udinese @ 2.50 (favs)
Inter @ 1.45
Tenerife @ 5.10 (favs)
Villareal @ 3.45
Deportivo @ 3.45
St Etienne @ 2.52 (favs)
take out inter and the other 5 all to fail to win is 5.94 acca (with inter it is 18.47)
also fancy arsenal to get something at stamford bridge but ill wait for team news first. Since the terry scandal chelsea have been poor in the 2 games, they just managed to beat burnley after playing awful for 90 mins and against hull should have been 3-0 down before drogba equalised and chelsea were lucky to get a draw...
man utd ripped arsenal to shreds last week but they know they cannotl ose this game orelse its over for them in terms of a title challenge, i really think they will be up for this, only downside is of courses arsenal having no strikers and playing midfielders up top
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Gutting with udinese late winner last week. Napoli went down to 10 men in 1st half so had to play the whole 2nd half away from home 11 vs 10, udinese never scored until the 92nd min (then the 93rd) 11 vs 11 udinese dont win. Just one of those things that goes against you and you cant predict. red cards sometimes go for you sometimes against you. If you were following in-play you could have got out for no loss.
Coventry vs QPR: Back Coventry @ 2.14
Superb win for coventry midweek beating inform notts forest 1-0. Decent run of form at home with 4 wins and a draw from last 5, lost just 1 of last 7 which was to promotion favs newcastle. QPR are just in a dreadful run of form and football is all about confidence and QPR have none!! lost 4 on the bounce and 5 of last 6, only 1 win in last 13 league games which was 2-1 at home to bristol city. Away from home its no wins in 7 and lost 5 of those and have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 away games. Coventry also have a good record over QPR unbeaten in last 8 league games. More than happy to ake 11/10 on a team playing home to a team in a poor run of form.
If i was to go for a scoreline it would be 2-0 @ 12
Barnsley vs Plymouth: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.10
Always plenty of goals when these 2 meet, in the 6 championship meetings 5 have ended over 2.5 goals with the other game ending 2-0, plymouth did go down to 10 men in this game after 28 mins with scores at 0-0 so this totally changes the game and plymouth look to keep it very tight at he back which makes it tough for goals. In the 6 games there has been an avge of 3.83 goals p/g. Plymouths 14 away games this season has been a 50/50 split with 7 overs and 7 unders, barnsleys home games more in favour overs with 9 of he 15 ending over 2.5 goals. Plymouth are a bottom 7 side in the championship and so far barnsley have hosted 4 sides from the bottom 7 and 3 of these 4 also ended over 2.5 goals with 1-3, 2-1, 2-1 and 1-1 scorelines. Strongly fancy both teams to score today which is priced @ 1.90. plymouth scored in 10 of their 14 away games and barnsley scored in last 12 of their home games.
As an outside bet 2-1 barnsley @ 9.60 looks worth a nibble
QPR, Gillingham and Exeter 3 away teams that shouldnt win today and the lay treble on BF is 1.87 (1.66 with bet365), if looking for odds against you can add livingston to beat annan which makes a 2.46 4fold
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Good work mate, I had the Coventry and the Overs bets which I wouldn't have picked without your post.
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always glad to help
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Been poor the last couple of sundays with late goals and red cards going against us, Hopefully have a winning sunday today and not much i like the look of a all
Valladolid vs R Zaragoza: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.95
8 of valladolids 11 home games this season have ended over 2.5 goals with an avge of 3.36 goals p/g, and 5 of those 8 have also ended over 3.5 goals, 4 of the last 6 have ended overs.
Zaragozas away games have an even higher overs ratio with 9 of their 11 away games ending overs with an avge of 4.27 goals p/g and 7 of those 9 also ending over 3.5 goals, and 8 of last 9 ending overs.
So 17 of the 22 games have ended over 2.5 goals with a huge 12 of those 17 ending over 3.5 goals..... over 3.5 goals is priced @ 3.45 and could be worth 1pt
last 4 meetings between the 2 sides have all ended overs.
Both teams to score is 1.66 which is a little short for me but zaragoza have scored in 10 of their 11 away gams with he only blank being away to barcelona and valladolid have scored in 8 of their 11 home games with 2 of the blanks vs barcelona and a madrid
Another bet i like the look of here is over 1.5 1st half goals @ 3.00
3 of the last 4 meetings beween these 2 sides have had at least 2 1st half goals, 5 of valladolids 11 home games have had at least 2 1st half goals and 6 of zaragozas 11 away games had at least 2 1st half goals so 11 from 22
champions league starts back midweek and barca and inter will have one eye on those games and could come unstuck today agains tricky away opposistion, also ancy hibs to get something out of rangers game aswell
Nothing big here as all 3 are capable of beating their opponants on their day but today i think there is good odds on the favs coming unstuck
lay barcelona and inter @ 3.79
lay barca and rangers @ 6.89
lay inter and rangers @ 4.94
3 x 1/2pt doubles
if 2 of the 3 fail to win we make a profit and all 3 would be superb, the treble for those interested is priced @ 11.18 (8.64 with normal bookmakers)
The lays and over 3.5 goals in valladolid match are little extras for those that dont mind a litle extra punt today but there is nothing wrong with just sticking with the main bet of overs in the valladolid/zaragoza match...
so the exta bets are up to yourself today, im going to have a little punt on the lay doubles and see if the favs do come unstuck but like i said main bet today is over 2.5 oals in valladolid match and the other bets you can take from as you like
Like the look of villa at palace but doing nothing until teams announced
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ignore the above statements on barca and inter playing midweek CL games, they dont play until next week
i completely forgot they have changed it to 4 fixtures a week over 2 weeks rather than all 8 fixtures over the 2 midweek days 
still think they have tough away games though and worth the lays at the prices above
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