Setting aside a 'gambling' budget

[sKiTz0]

I am thinking of opening a new betfair account simply for gambling/mug punts/investments (whatever you want to call it really) and putting a few hundred in there to start off with. Say £500 ish. I can afford to take that hit if it all goes horribly wrong, lets call it a 'research' budget. I'll be following craigs thread with interest and hopefully following some of the picks, and with good money management and only betting a certain percentage of my bankroll at a time, I should hopefully make some good profit. Say typically betting 1-2% of my bankroll on a bet, never more than 4/5%.

Betting a percentage will ensure that I will never (technically) go bust, but the trade off is that it will take longer to get the profits going. Assuming I pick the winners that is

I'm not going to pretend it is my idea, but seems to make a lot of sense and having good money management gives you more control than say casinos where I've found the variation a bit much to start with.

I'd be interested to hear if anybody has any experience/tips/input for this as it's something I've never really dabbled in before, but am investing in trying to find new ways of making profit and diversifying as much as I can.

[Andy]

I'd be interested to hear if anybody has any experience/tips/input for this as it's something I've never really dabbled in before,

I have experience of similar, I have over a douzen Betfair accounts partly for that reason.

but am investing in trying to find new ways of making profit and diversifying as much as I can.

I have not found anything that works forever and that is sort of logical and the key thing with betfair. If there is a gap/edge/anomily in the betting odds to mean you can profit from it sooner or later somebody else will spot it too, and so there is less margin for you, and then somebody else will and so less profit less often again, until the edge is completely gone and the market is perfect again. So basically if/when you spot a gap dont think it will last forever you have to be flexible and adapt.

I only do this sort of thing for fun and have never won or lost more than a few £ks total on any system or trial. It is quite good fun though I find.

[craig.gibson]

Good luck with this sKiTzO.....good money management is definately the key aswell as picking winners of course.

The %`s you stated are sensible imo....are you saying you intend on increasing stakes daily if your bank goes up? Personally I prefer to set a target before increasing or decreasing stakes but thats just my preference.

The reason I do this is if I have one or two bad days....if i`ve decreased my stakes then I could miss out on profits from the next big winning day....or could lose more by having a very bad day after a good one. I realise this could also slow profits when on a winning streak but prefer a little caution.

I`m fairly sure I read a post ln the last couple of weeks where Andy said he was gonna set up some king of tipping service....I don`t know any more than that though, I will def be interested to see what he has in mind.

[Human123]

Andy, do you have any examples of edges that have lost their edge on betfair?

[Andy]

Andy, do you have any examples of edges that have lost their edge on betfair?

The oldest, largest, and most famous for continuing to work for a long time was simply that when a "gamble" developed on a Horse to win all the action would focus on the win market, the place market would react much slower, hence when a Horse shot in you could still back it to place at the higher than true value odds. Since then betfair "sharp minds" realised and it is now more efficient.

There have been many others but I am afraid i dont know the details as such, I am pretty sure that is right though. One very simple one on EuroVision was (is) to bet in a contrarian way during the first half, odds over reacted as its only current songs with any action, as they are fogotten the odds go back again over the two hours. Worked very well a few years ago, as now more people do it and sooner there is less swings anyway and its not so good or even garunteed anymore.

More random/obscure markets have bigger miss prices. I am no good at finding them really though, if I was I would just do that all day. I am 99% sure they are there though if you look hard and know what the true odds are. They just wont stay like that for long as more people learn your "trick".

[Diamondgeezer]

If you are setting up a gambling budget why have it all in Betfair? Betfair will often not be best price so you will be missing out on a lot of value.

If you want to trade then fair enough but if you want to gamble you are better off using best prices.

BTW I read a good bankroll management technique from poker player Chris Ferguson. If you lose 5% of your bankroll make your max bet 5% of the new balance.

[sKiTz0]

craig, was thinking of changing bet stakes at say, every £150 or £100 at the start. Any more than that and it'd just be silly figures that I couldn't bet at bookies, and more hassle than it's worth.

Diamond - you make a good point, but I wanted to keep a separate balance from my normal matched betting budget and a new betfair account would do that. To be honest though I haven't really made many comparisons between bookies odds and bf odds on games to see if bf odds really are better (as they claim) so may be some interesting research to do before I dive in

[Diamondgeezer]

Sure I understand if you want to resist temptation etc. But a spreadsheet can do the job just as well.

Betfair are rarely best price because of commission. They are good for very long shot horses though but I doubt you will be betting on those anyway.

When you take the commission into account the Betfair prices are a lot less attractive, especially on shorter odds selections. If you do some research on oddschecker you will see what I mean.

Not meaning to sound negative but depending on what you are going to gamble on, other places could be a better choice.

[Fella]

BF have the premium charge too, which is a factor for high-rollers.

If I wanted a separate mugging a/c I'd prob use a bookie but that's prob just because I'm so ingrained to be betting with bonus money where possible now. The main prob with bookies versus bf is the lack of markets many bookies offer.

[Human123]

Pinnacle?