Bookmakers know best - Following the If bets (an experiment)

[frankbutcher]

Sorry for the long post title.

Anyway I've spent the last few Saturdays working through various 'if' offers and, after spending a fair amount of time doing them, seem to end up with lots of £1.50 ish losses and no refunds. I used to lock in a profit but my mid-life crisis must have kicked in a little bit early and I'm not doing that anymore.

So this got me thinking, why do the bookies put these offers up? Odds compilers and marketing guys at these firms are clearly not daft and they are trying to entice you in to bet with the intention of hopefully (from their point of view) not paying out any potential refund.

So I've decided to follow the bookmaker's wisdom as an experiment and back or lay everything that they think will happen with small stakes. Hopefully that will make sense from what I post below.

Offer 1: PP - refund if Mayweather fight ends in 1st 6 rounds.
My bet: 6.5+ rounds €10.75 (£9.34)(existing bal) @ 1.1 Bwin
Mayweather wins on points €1.08 (94p) profit

Offer 2: Fred - refund if goal is scored in 1st 20 mins of Liverpool v Chelsea
My bet: Lay 0-10 mins £2@ 5.6 Lay 10-20 mins £2@ 6.8
1st goal 33 mins £3.80 profit

Offer 3: Fred - refund if Man Utd win by 2 goals or more v Sunderland
My bet: Sunderland +1.5 £10 @ 1.75 BF
1-0 Man Utd. £7.12 profit

Its just an experiment, low stakes, bit of fun. Advice / criticism appreciated below.

(Also planning to lay the fav in any 2nd place refund races. This says to me: anything could win/be placed)

Current profit £11.86 ROI = 50.8% (I think, not sure if I've calculated that properly)


***** EDIT ***** Taken over by Andy - Results only here ***** EDIT *****

Running Total of each bookmakers record after going with their de facto prediction to win £10 a time.

-£52 PPower

+£10 VC

+£10 BetFred

[sammy123]

hi m8,

are you checking bookmakers websites to find these bets or being emailed?

[chrisrose]

hi m8,

are you checking bookmakers websites to find these bets or being emailed?

you find alot of these offers, under gambling on moneysavingexpert site , on forum page, run by martin lewis

[sammy123]

tks

[CountryLad]

hi m8,

are you checking bookmakers websites to find these bets or being emailed?

Some get emailed, some are just on site. Lots (most) of them get posted on this thread (it's on a bit of the site which is visible to premium members only, I'm afraid);

http://www.thegamblingtimes.com/boar...rs-thread.html

[frankbutcher]

Offer 4

Up Four Grabs
If there are more than 4 goals in this match, Paddy Power will refund all losing 1st /last goalscorer, correct score & scorecast singles on the match.

My bet: Under 4.5 goals £10 @ 1.12 PP

[muntjack]

Great experiment! Think I might join you (if you don't mind )

(Can't see #4 on the PP site - was it for tonight's match?)

ETA Found it! - any special reason you used PP for the u4.5? BF gives a better return (1.18 less commission).

[frankbutcher]

any special reason you used PP for the u4.5? BF gives a better return (1.18 less commission).

My maths isn't what it used to be.

[frankbutcher]

Bet 4 wins = £1.12 profit

Current profit = £12.98 Bet wins 4/4

[frankbutcher]

Money-Back Special
If Chelsea fail to win this match, Paddy Power will refund all losing 1st/last goalscorer, correct score & scorecast singles on the match

Bet 5

Chelsea win £10 @ 1.11 @ PP