Craig`s football picks 2010-2011 season

[craig.gibson]

Ok....time to get this thing started. Posting them early as i`m going away for the weekend. The stated odds are all from betfair, I will deduct commission at 5%

I will use an average stake of 2 units to start and then prob up it to 3 units as I get into the swing of things.

English Premier League

Saturday

Tottenham (2 units to win 2.92 units)
Aston Villa (2 units to win 2.08 units)
Everton (2 units to win 3.08 units)
Blackpool +0.5 (2 units to win 2.29 units)
Blackpool (1 unit to win 4.20 units)

Sunday

Liverpool/Arsenal over 2.5 goals (2 units to win 2.72 units)

I see some value in all of these bets....some stats on the Liverpool/Arsenal game:

Last season both Liverpool home games and Arsenal away games went over 2.5......63%!!......2.36 is madness imo

Good luck guys

[craig.gibson]

adding one final play:

Chelsea to keep a clean sheet (3 units to win 2.25 units)

I think this and Chelsea to win to nil are both good bets but bf don`t offer the latter so will go with the clean sheet.

Last season Chelsea kept a clean sheet 11 out of 19 epl home games including games against Man Utd, Spurs, Liverpool & Arsenal....West Brom stepping up from the championship will surely struggle against the champions.

BOL

[wndllll]

Great to see you going at it again Craig. I await your picks with baited breath as I'm having a shot at doing this properly myself this year. I shan't be posting my own thread though as I'd like a proper years stats behind me first.

Hope you don't mind if I post my own thoughts on here occasionally, I value your input. I'm def on Everton this season, they finally have a (mostly) injury free start to the season and should hit the ground running for once. Have to say I also fancy Wigan over Blackpool at 1.8-something, seems generous against a team everybody and their dog say will be bottom by the end of the year.

Best of luck!

[craig.gibson]

Thanks wndllll....feel free to post anything you like in here. I`m not one of those that doesn`t like others posting on my thread, it`s all good

Nice to get off to a winning start

Tottenham (2 units to win 2.92 units) -2.00
Aston Villa (2 units to win 2.08 units) +2.08
Everton (2 units to win 3.08 units) -2.00
Blackpool +0.5 (2 units to win 2.29 units) +2.29
Blackpool (1 unit to win 4.20 units) +4.20
Chelsea to keep a clean sheet (3 units to win 2.25 units) +2.25
Liverpool/Arsenal over 2.5 goals (2 units to win 2.72 units) -2.00

+4.82 (-5% on commission on 10.82 = 0.54)

YTD:+4.28 units

[craig.gibson]

Monday

Man Utd to keep a clean sheet (3.00 to win 2.25)

Last season Man U kept a clean sheet in 11 out of 19 home prem games so 1.75 seems good value to me.....especially against a team promoted from the championship.

BOL

[craig.gibson]

Man Utd to keep a clean sheet (3.00 to win 2.25) +2.25

+2.25 (-5% commission 0.11)

YTD:+6.42 units

[MikeyRivered]

Out of interest how much is a unit?

[craig.gibson]

I don`t mean to be rude but don`t really see why it matters....also it depends how big my float is at the time. From time to time i make a withdrawal and reduce my unit size.

What I will tell you is a unit is 1% of my bank when betting on the premiership.

[sKiTz0]

Craig, when do you increase/decrease your unit size? I'm torn between +/- 10% or +/-25% or somewhere in between.

i.e with a starting float of £1,000, you would change unit size when hitting either £900/£1100 or £750/£1250. 10% seems fairly sensible, but maybe slightly early. But to me, 25% seems rather late. I'm thinking of re-assessing at around 15% plus or minus.

I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on both what you do personally, and how you have found this affects you during good/bad runs.

Cheers

[MikeyRivered]

Sorry Craig, to be clearer i meant as a percentage of your float rather than an amount, just seems an interesting way to measure your bets in term of risk/reward, my trouble is i tend to increase stakes too quickly if i win.