I'm having an inception moment now, the planting of the seed of doubt is seriously testing my resolve hmm :/
Gotta way up the utlity from wishing I had but not having done it to the utility of doing it and ending up wishing I hadn't.
This is one that you really have to get right mentally.
I had $2,200 on Florida Marlins last week and was matching this at Matchbook when the odds on the other team (Washington) suddenly took a turn for the worse and I was looking at a poor outcome i.e guaranteed loss of $100. FYI this was around 10 days profit from matched betting so not my life savings but clearly substantial.
I made a (stupid) decision to keep my lay odds offered at Matchbook and wait to see if the odds returned in my favour and not match unless they returned. I was then tried to mentally prepare for the exposure and get my head around what I was doing.
They returned about two minutes before the start and I matched.
Florida won 5-0.
I then have had to think about what could have been (i.e. $2,000 winnings) for the next few days and put off any further stupid bets as that one won easily.
If you can afford it - just get it right in your head and stick to it.
If you cant then match it now and forget about it.
Newcastle are too good for the Championship but not good enough for the Prem, they are in no (way aye) man's land.
I think it is too early to really tell for Newcastle as the current team has no history at the top level.
They play as a team but have few individuals to spark a game and no firepower up front. They wont score many goals this season but will keep a tight ship at the back against the smaller teams (nothing will get past Mr Campbell).
Therefore I think they will end up with more draws than most and plenty of 0-0 results.
if you've got the money to throw around and you enjoy this sort of thing then fair enough but if you're worrying whether you've done the right thing or not then I'd recommend matching this bet, taking your losses and not to do this crazyness again!
Newcastle v Villa has low scoring draw written all over it imo. Newcastle are always difficult to beat when at home, and Villa are inconsistent when away, which will not be helped by both their manager and best player having recently left.
Whilst I do fancy Villa to bt Newcastle I have to say unless you have a gambling bank of at least 50k then this bet is unwise. If it`s kind of a one off thing to see what happens and ur not too worried if you lose....fair enough I suppose but think it would be better to place more bets at a smaller stake.
Maybe choose one bet at a time and risk 5-10% of the 5k on each bet...you can still reach ur target pretty quickly and much less risk of busting.
@ LP I don't think that is much of an issue, partly money is such a minor concern in my life at the moment as I have plenty of it, FWIW the figure of £4900 wasn't chosen arbitrarily this is the profit I made from 2 weeks on world cup betting and the past 2 weeks minus some expenditure. In short, I can afford it, however as an insurance policy I will back £400 @ 11 on 0-0. If they draw 1-1 well then that was a bad call. If they draw 0-0 well then that was a terrible call (as I just can't see them keeping out Villa!) but in the event of a Villa win then I've called it right and in the even Newcastle win then I haven't called it wrong. There is a good reason I have laid the draw and not laid Newscastle to win. I just don't like to go into my entire thought process all the time.
In short, I've decided that it is optimal for super dash's utility to stick to his guns. I'll continue discussion on Sunday evening.