Hey Fella....f you ask me the market gets it wrong on a regular basis....of course spotting this is not always easy. Plenty of people make consistant profits betting football which would suggest to me that you can have "an edge". To say it`s not possible to have an edge is surely wriong?
I'd probably have to see it to believe it. (Which I mean genuinely, not glibly). I.e. if someone advance posted their bets over a reasonable period of time or amount of bets (lets say at least a couple of seasons & at least 100 bets) & was heavily profitable I might change my view. Even then I'd probably want a longer & bigger sample! I've spent most of my life around gamblers & I don't know anyone who makes a consistent profit on topflight footy. Of course it's definitely possible I just know a lot of rotten gamblers!
Best of luck Dash! I really am not too sure why you're doing this but it's a monster punt and certainly livened up the tipping board, so I really hope it pays off for you. Take yourself out to a nice restaurant and enjoy a fine meal and a few drinks instead of watching the match would be my advice. It could be a truly awful experience to sit through a game with all that money on the line.
My opinon initially is that you shouldn't make the bet because it was a month's worth of work to earn that money, though I respect your ability to handle such a loss (assuming it loses and you really do end it here).
Once I've gotten over the fact that you're going to place the bet, I'm in the same camp as people saying you should use some bonus somewhere. There are plenty of bonuses out there that suck for the regular matching technique, and force you into taking a punt or doubling up at the beginning or something. Instead of being forced into it, why not specifically find one? You'll get a load of EV so you'll kick yourself less if you lose, and if you keep the same £4900 stake you could find your winnings skyrocket with a hefty bonus involved.
My only other comment is it's slightly rich to be giving people a hard time about looking out for you. Nobody insulted you personally, and you're the one who came on here to post about this fantastic do or die wager you're doing. Without a detailed explanation and justification it's easy to come to the conclusion this bet is being made in desperation, or for attention seeking purposes or anything other than good clean fun.
That said, it is ultimately your money to do what you want with, and I really hope it come through for you. I'd like to see what you do with the profits (plus I support Villa ) so good luck.
EDIT* Oh another thing, I think you'd be mental NOT to watch the match!! You're potentially spending £4900 on it! At least get 95 minutes of increased heart rate out of it, rather than 5 seconds checking the scoreline! Plus the feeling when Villa knock in a winner 5 minutes from time will be much better than the feeling of seeing "1-0 fulltime" on flashscore.