XFactor betting 2010

[Andy]

Apparantly I heard a hot tip that New Direction were going to do well, make it to the final week and probably win it. On closer inspection there is no band called New Direction so unperturbed I decided they probably meant One Direction instead.

Having not watched more than 30mins of the show in total and being a sheep I backed them at 5.6 and have already put in lays at 5.1 and 4.6 to get my stake back and have a bet to nothing.

Any other thoughts/theories/bets/strategies?

Someone mentioned you can lay every runner at 97% under round for garunteed £s surely that is "Phree muney"? (That is a bad joke you cant so dont do that)

[dreamylittledream]

Rumour has it is the 'twist' is a wild card entry to give 13 contestants which explains the under round.

Likely to be Gamu is she is not deported first!

[Fella]

Yep, One Direction, the whole New Direction misdirection was my bad.

Also, I fancy them for the 2010 version, not so much the 2011 one

But yeah, I do think they're a stonking bet for the following reasons as I mentioned in the chat:

1 Mentored by Cowell who has huge influence on the vote
2 will also be loved by louis who is particularly keen on young boy acts
3 will be loved by the x-factor voting demographic i.e. young girls
4 Two of them can sing respectably
5 very different to any previous winnner therefore lots of marketing potential
6 probably the worst final 12 ever, at least half of them are almost joke candidates
7 They'll be malleable & easy for Simon to dictate to, a key requirement, he doesn't like 'em stroppy or to have a mind of their own

There is a bit of a gap in the market for a young boy band too IMO. Most boy bands nowadays are more like mid-life-crisis bands.

I've started betting them at 6.6 & will continue to do so. I might simply start mugging stuff like Beatvic fivers on them (just did one in fact, @ 5.5) to gradually build up a position. I'll be amazed if they don't trade much shorter than 6s & I think they're a good shout to win.


Caveat: Obviously my dismal arc tipping doesn't inspire much confidence....

[MarcWiseman]

I reckon its currently between Rebecca Ferguson or one of the 'new groups' that Cowell created.

For me, Ferguson is easily the most talented in the competition, and as long as Cheryl isn't an idiot (large possibility she might be) and gives her poorly chosen songs that don't suit her voice, then I fancy her to win.

I completely agree with everyone regarding One Direction, even though they've given themselves a completely wank cliche of a band name. But the girl equivalent, Belle Amie, IMO have the same positives outlined by Fella but are more talented, so at 26 seem value.

Large possibilty that all of that will turn out to be rubbish, but seeing as I bet on Joe to win last year, I consider myself a pro.

(I also bet on Danyl and Jedward).

[PaulRaynorStoleMyKFC]

The girl band will more than likely go before the boy band due to the kind of demographic that vote on shows like this,

I'm deffo on the bandwagon of backing one direction with a view to lay, however I am waiting to see the outcome of the twist as I think it will push their odds up, hopefully to around 6.5.

[bella]

Well I stuck a tenner on Simon @ 4.2 as can't see him going early and a tenner on the groups @ 4.5...

[bella]

X Factor Finalists 2010 UK - X Factor final 12 - X Factor 2010 | The X Factor 2010 by TellyMix

[snoopy]

Bella you doing a sweepstake again for this?

[bella]

Bella you doing a sweepstake again for this?

yeah sure...

ok, need 12 people to start and then maybe 4 reserves if 4 wild cards happen..

16 contestants = 80.00 prize fund

50 first

20 second

10 third

or if no wild cards

12 x 5= 60

30- winner

20- 2nd place

10 3rd place


1snoopy
2bella
3srh1984
4fella
5Andy
6dreamylittledream
7PaulRaynorstolemyKFC
8pinkyExcel
9 Horsekeeper
10amanwithaplan
11Eddie
12Saddler
13Gibber
14 AscotEd

[TTWAR]

Simon commented she's got a recording voice (Rebecca) thats where my money is. Plus the quality really is p**s poor this year.