Ashes 10/11

[lotte]

My predictions.
England win
England 3-1 with a saver on 2-1
Swann top bowler
Trott Top batsman.

Will bet on these once their is a little more money in the market.

[zenmaster]

My predictions.
England win
England 3-1 with a saver on 2-1
Swann top bowler
Trott Top batsman.

Will bet on these once there is a little more money in the market.

Cant see the aussies being rolled over personally. 2-1 to england, maybe even 2-2 its going to be VERY tight, the aussies need to find a few players really i have never seen them so short especially in the bowling department.

[yam]

The much awaited Ashes series is about to swing into motion
Just thought I would start a thread on :
The 5 Tests and chatter, thoughts, comments etc
Quality betting options
Betting stratergies
Bookmaker arbs
Bookmaker promotions

This should be a classic series
EG are seemingly peaking in form, Australia is playing below par
For probably the first time since the days of Gatting and his troops , there is general optimism that England can achieve a winning series on Australian soil

Current series markets
$2-00 Australia
$2-95 England
$5-65 Drawn Series

Ive asked this question in another thread
If Australia is the Bookies favourite to win the series, than why isnt the Draw the second favourite ?
If one of the sides leads 1-0 in the series, then would the Draw then become the 2nd favourite ?
Should we back the draw, and lay off cheaper after the series is 1-0 ?

First Test, Gabba
Rain a plenty in North Eastern Australia
There is a concern this pitch will be underprepared and will suit the bowlers
In any case the Gabba is generally a bouncy pitch, and swing bowlers generally bowl well there as it swings in the near tropical location

Hope the Aussies win the series !

[Eddie]

Loving the anticipation to this series, shame it's in the middle of the night, oh well. I've been spraying a few bets around. England to win 4-0 (with a saver on 4-1) at 40/1 struck me as a decent bet. Clearly I am not saying I think it will be this sort of score but I think it's quite a big price as this Aussie side is potentially quite weak with no heavy hitters to go to when things aren't going so well and the pressure gets exerted.

Swann top scorer 1st innings 1st test 66/1, hehe, can you tell that I like my big price punts yet? This could be a low scoring game and with Englands propensity to collapse it wouldn't be the first time that Keeper and lower order are called on to tonk a few runs to save the day. Of course there's Broad as well but I'll stick with just Swanny as he's my favourite.

There'll be more bets too today I'm sure especially with my luxbet freebie to come. May go for Swann top bowler of the series or a Swann/Johnson Double as top bowlers for their sides. Finn could be worth a little bit too if he can acheive some Mcgrath type accuracy and consistency on wickets that might suit him.

[yam]

Engalnd won the toss and batted
Stumps, Day 1
England 260
Peter Siddle 6/54 on his 26th birthday , including a hat trick
Australia 0/25

Was not the greentop the press predicted, but there was enough in the deck to make it a good contest between bat and ball

Betfair betting
$1-46 Australia
$6-00 England
$6-40 Draw

England seem to be good odds with Australia batting last

[bold_eagle26]

Aussie price looks short to me, a lot more action in this game to go. Will lay and then hope to see a few wickets fall in the mornign session.. On the other hand if they do bat well the price on the draw looks appealing as the price should come in. Decisions decisions!

[yam]

Bad light stops play on day 2
England 260
Australia 5/220
Mike Hussey 81 not out top scorer

Betfair odds
$1-54 Australia
$4-60 England
$8-00 Draw

The only bet stumps day 1 was England at $6
Stumps day 2, England are again the value at $4-60 in my opinion
The new ball is due
England bowled very well day 2, Australia are very fortunate to be still batting
Australias vice captain Michael Clarke is really struggling with a back injury
And Australia will have to bat last, and Swanny will be eying off the footmarks

Weather experts predict very little interuption by rain , although the light issues close to stumps may be a factor

Been a great game to watch, always seems to be when bowlers have conditions that assist them
Beats watching the boring games in the Pakistan v South Africa and India v New Zealand because they continue playing on dead pan decks

[munk]

They had a good session yesterday before tea I think it was, really started to get on a roll with a few good wickets in fairly quick succession. I think at best England were around 2.5 to back and if they'd continued at that pace they would have easily become the favourites by tea.

Unfortunately though Hussey suddenly found a bit of form and looked rock solid for his 6th(? something like that) wicket, really gave a backbone to the Aussie attack. They were looking very shaky prior to that.

Was some minor controversy at the end of play because it was agreed before the match with the ICC and both teams that play *would* continue in bad light (under floodlights). However about 30mins(? maybe longer) after tea the bad light DID stop play because the umpires hadn't turned the lights on in time!!!

Luckily for the umpires a short time after bad light stopped play, it started chucking it down with rain so they got let off the hook to some extent. But it was a crucial time for England because the bad light decision was made just as the 4th umpire had brought the new ball onto the field (which England would undoubtably have taken and it would have given them a huge advantage), so understandably at the time England were a bit miffed about that.

England really need to take Hussey's wicket very quickly indeed today to stand any chance and if he manages to get a foothold then expect the price on England to shoot out to at least 8-9 within as little as an hour I would think. Alternatively if Hussey's wicket does fall quickly I think the price will drop to around 3 and further if more wickets fall quickly afterwards (though the Aussie tail isn't exactly weak apparently so that will be a tall order as well).

My own position is I took England at 3 just as they started to lose their grip yesterday after the good afternoon session. I had expected them to put the pressure back on with Hussey's wicket, but that didn't transpire (Hussey seemed to get on top of Swann's spin very well compared to others) so right now I'm looking at a loss unless they can take a few quick wickets and I can trade out at 3 or less (actually will break even if I trade out now around 4.2/4.3 due to some good trading yesterday, but I'm hoping the new ball plays out for England).

[yam]

Stumps day 3
England 260
Australia 481
England 0/19

Aussies were in strfie at 5/143, and England had a chance to dismiss them below 250
But Hussey 195 and Haddin 136 put on an amazing 307 run partnership
Finn 6/125 got the figures and looks a real good bowler
Take away the 307 and England actually bowled well

England have been stiff getting the wrong end of the 3rd umpiring this Test

Pitch is playing ok, England just have to bat on and on and get as close to 400 as possible, a lead of 180 would make things interesting

We in Australia are still waiting for Mitchell Johnson to perform against England

[TonyMarc]

This series could be very close. Both teams have reasonable and closely matched batting line ups, however England have the edge in the bowling department. I'm sure both teams will have their day in the sun where they outplay each other on any given day. I'm going for a one all draw. Ponting to resign within the next year...

England need to make better use of the referral system - their choice of what to refer was rubbish. It might prove costly...