closed: lay blackpool 104.54 @ 2.2 pre commission profit 4.54, £4.41 after comm.
closed lay United 97.90 @ 1.43 loss £2.10
The united trade was a bit of a punt on them playing a strong team and the price dippping to below 1.3, I think the early price of 1.4 this morning reflected the idea that they would play a weakened side against a poor Stoke team, it probably wasn't worth doing but I thought Ferguson might want to make absolutely sure of putting them away. Of course I'm now hoping Stoke will do something good as I'd like to see a close contest for the title.
open: Arsenal v Man City, back Under 2.5 100 @ 2.06
I feel a bit out of my comfort zone with this as I have no real experience at looking at o/u markets in any great depth. I just feel that Man City will be coming not to lose and Mancini will set them up accordingly and hope that one of their stars can maybe fashion a chance or two without taking any great risks. Let's hope others feel the same and back this price down to 1.95 or so.
with balotelli and silva out I can't see Mancini setting up in any other way than to stifle Arsenal and take a draw, so with the Gunners having come in from earlier and the draw drifting out I'm going for the draw and hope to trade out tonight at 3.7-3.8.
closed: lay under 2.5 arsenal v Man City 98.09 @ 2.1 lose £1.91.
closed lay Draw Arsenal Man City 103.90 @ 3.85 profit £3.90 pre comm. 3.79 after.
Total number of Trades: 10
Profit to date : £ 16.66 after commission (I've ditched the pre commission figure as not quite sure why I was bothering with that).
Average Yield per trade: 1.67%
Well, enjoyed the Arsenal City game, Arsenal looked like they were going to score early on but City held in there and ultimately played as expected. I still thought the under 2.5 was overpriced but the market finds it's level and as I'm not in the business of punting on the actual outcome I can't grumble. I'm certain in my mind it was a value punt but as wth all punts we'll never actually know.
Oh Well, It's all a learning experience and I'm now trying to put in more trades, I suspect as with all these types of things a balance has to be found between increasing your volume and the inevitable reduction in your yield as you take on more positions which are less certain. I need to certainly do more research and reading up before taking positions on things. I must also try and avoid simply trading just to be "in the action" so to speak, from reading various financial trading books years ago I remember this being one of the major failings new traders made. Sometimes sitting on your hands makes you more money than just getting involved in the game for the sake of it. I think yesterday I was certainly guilty of this as I just wanted to have a crack at a couple of games to feel I was at least having a go and give me something to post up on here
Very good thread Eddie , after discussing value with you in the chatbox it would be interesting if you included a "what if " if you believe your backing value at the start then what if you let your initial bet ride and to see what profit would be compare to what you make trading .
Good thinking Eoin, I'll do that, it will take a lot of bets before we know if I'm any good at finding the value and I won't be letting any bets ride but easy enough to leep a record for interest. Truth be told I'd much rather be a pure Value punter but I don't have the stomach for the inevitable losing streaks so this is a sort of fudged compromise though still worth a go I reckon and still in the very early stages so plenty of balls ups and novice errors to come no doubt
I welcome from anyone any other ideas, observations, tales from your own similar trading experiences, criticisms and suggestions. We don't want it to just become a rather dull succession of my open trade, close trade posts