Eddie's Pre-Match Trades

[Eddie]

I thought I'd start making pre match trades on various sporting contests, mostly footy probably. By starting this thread it should help me to really make an effort to get on and commit to this as it's something I've been meaning to do for a while. I will start with mostly back bets of £100 and the golden rule will be that I must trade out before the match begins. I have no interest in going in play and if I do that I will not permit myself to include any profits from going in play to count in my overall figures, but I will say that losses from going in play will be counted in my profit/loss results so that will hopefully keep me disciplined, as I won't allow myself to increase stake sizes until I am showing at least a 2% average profit per bet yield on total stakes for the first 50 bets.

First trade :

Open : England 100 @ 2.72 3rd Test v Australia in Perth.

[Eddie]

that was a back bet btw

[rogsmith]

Nice idea eddie,there certainly can be a few quid made doing this if you pick it correct.The amount of times i have matched a bet for a sub and the price has come in massively,the trouble is when i leave it it seems to go the other way.Anyway i will be watching with interest,good luck mate.
Just a quick one,im sure you will go ok the nearer it gets but england have just drifted on betfair to 2.74 (strange)

[Eddie]

trade closed: lay England 100.74 @ 2.70 Profit +0.74

I made a right rick here, I got it in my head that the test match started this morning, doh! It's tonight of course. I traded out of the trade last night at 9pm as I was falling asleep and didn't want it to go what I thought would be in-play, I was disappointed to see the price hadn't moved much! What a wally! Still, I laid it at 2.70 to close the trade so a whopping 74p profit. Better than a loss but all in all a rather inauspicious start to the pre-match trading odyssey. Obviously I'll have a look again tonight. Having thought about it some more I just wonder how much English money goes on in this series cos of the time issues. Hopefully the City boys will start lumping on this afternoon from their offices. I see the prices on both teams has drifted a tiny bit but I still don't see them being evenly matched. Problem is the history at this ground is bad for England but that is just history and mostly involves results when Australia had one of the greatest teams the game has seen.

Another issue is with this type of betting/trading is that even assuming one is seeing Value it doesn't always follow to that value ever being seen by the rest of the punters and moving the price in your favour. I suppose this is where experience of seeing how markets move in certain situations or with certain teams is important. However, I will be taking a Value approach initially with my trades (well what I think is Value anyway, just gotta have faith in oneself and have the courage of your convictions) and hoping that the market then moves my way.

Another reason for me doing this is that since starting the match betting I have had very few proper bets or trades so thought this would be a bit more fun and also inspire me to read more sports related articles and stats which I used to like doing but recently haven't been doing so much so it'll be nice to get back into that. Crikey, I'm waffling now. Best go and read up on the weekends footy fixtures I think.

[Eddie]

Here we go again open : back England 3rd Test v Australia 100 @ 2.74

[Eddie]

Closed at 11pm last night as I went to bed, not sure what happened to the price in next 3 hours pre-match, anyone know?

Closed: Lay England 102.24 @ 2.68 Profit 2.24 less commission

Total number of Trades: 2
Profit to date : £ 2.98 pre commission, £ 2.856 after commission
Average Yield per trade: 1.428%

[Eddie]

My method for this pre match trading in the footy is to try and formulate my own tissue on the game before seeing the odds at bf and then if there is a significant difference in the prices combined with a feeling that indeed I would expect the prices to move more towards my prices then I'll put in a trade. I haven't done this for a long time and the first game I have looked at has rather dented my confidence and has me questioning whether I'm doing this right. I went for 1X2 prices on the Arsenal v Stoke game of 1.45 / 4.1 / 15.0 The actual prices on bf at the moment are 1.31 / 5.8 / 13.5 so clearly my draw price is way out, maybe I haven't got the right balance in my head yet for juggling the 3 prices in relation to each other. On this basis though I better stick with what I think and back the Draw as a pre match trade. Might just check the team news again to see if I've missed something.

[Eddie]

open Back Draw, Arsenal v Stoke 100 @ 5.8

[Eddie]

closed: Lay Draw, Arsenal v Stoke 109.43 @ 5.3 profit before comm. £9.43

Total number of Trades: 3
Profit to date : £ 12.41 pre commission, £ 11.85 after commission
Average Yield per trade: 3.95%

[Eddie]

Oh dear, my first good trade of over 9% profit and the game is cancelled. Really disappointed, not cos of the money but just to put in the effort and then it comes to nothing