
Premium Member
n=355 , and you will need to flip the coin about 3550 times
So looks like winning 10 even bets in a row is about 1 in 3550 and I have 104 tries
That's completely wrong and I don't think there's any need to bring quite advanced maths into it. That maths refers to how many bets you'd need to do before you were 99.99% sure you'd have 10 winning bets in a row. And that's 10 bets in a row starting from any bet, not just from the £10 one so it is quite irrelevant to what you're doing.
A logical way to think about it is if you are getting 100% value on your bets, and you were to turn £10 into £10240, then the odds of doing it is 1239/1 for every £10 you start with. With 104 tries, your odds on getting to the £10240 target come down to about 12/1 or about 8%.

Premium Member
Originally Posted by AllGone
Week 2 06/06/1112/06/11
Attempt 1
Bet 1 Stjarnan Gardabae vs Grindavik  Stjarnan Gardabae@ 1.90= WONTotal winnings £19
hey! i was on this game for attempt 1/Bet 1 as well!!
so £9.51 profit from that
i was so eager to get my challenge under way i put 2 bets on yesterday the other was
Originally Posted by bella
Sweden U21 v Serbia U21 2.02 won
Sweden U21 v Serbia U21
sweden won 10 so £10.08 profit
looking at a bet for tonights matches now........
seems there are only a couple of matches whereby the return is approx evens at the mo!

Originally Posted by Bananaman
That's completely wrong and I don't think there's any need to bring quite advanced maths into it.
Yep it's actually very simple:
Odds of winning a bet of evens are 1/2
Odds of winning two bets at evens are (1/2) * (1/2) = (1/4)
...
Odds of winning ten bets at evens are (1/2)^10 (to the power of 10 = 1/1024
(Another way of working this out is just to divide the £10240 of winnings by £10 = 1024 possibilities, only one of which is winning all 10 bets)
And obviously the more bets you do at lower odds, the greater the chance of success  10 bets at 1.9 is a 1/613 chance, so pretty much halved!

Senior Member
Well I did this last night,
1st Bet Argentinos Juniors £10 @ 1.95
Lost!

eck! Ireland just scored!

20 Ireland....hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm....
This is tricky!!

Premium Member
Originally Posted by Bananaman
n=355 , and you will need to flip the coin about 3550 times
So looks like winning 10 even bets in a row is about 1 in 3550 and I have 104 tries
That's completely wrong and I don't think there's any need to bring quite advanced maths into it. That maths refers to how many bets you'd need to do before you were 99.99% sure you'd have 10 winning bets in a row. And that's 10 bets in a row starting from any bet, not just from the £10 one so it is quite irrelevant to what you're doing.
A logical way to think about it is if you are getting 100% value on your bets, and you were to turn £10 into £10240, then the odds of doing it is 1239/1 for every £10 you start with. With 104 tries, your odds on getting to the £10240 target come down to about 12/1 or about 8%.
Thanks Bananaman I just copied the maths from somewhere, didn't really understand it. But 12/1 chance is pretty good imo if losing the money isn't a problem
One day you have it........Next it's AllGone

Premium Member
Originally Posted by jakethepeg
Yep it's actually very simple:
Odds of winning a bet of evens are 1/2
Odds of winning two bets at evens are (1/2) * (1/2) = (1/4)
...
Odds of winning ten bets at evens are (1/2)^10 (to the power of 10 = 1/1024
(Another way of working this out is just to divide the £10240 of winnings by £10 = 1024 possibilities, only one of which is winning all 10 bets)
And obviously the more bets you do at lower odds, the greater the chance of success  10 bets at 1.9 is a 1/613 chance, so pretty much halved!
Well if its halved at 1.9 I will start looking for bets around 1.71.9. Seems that might be a better plan and get just under 10k after 10 bets instead. Thanks
One day you have it........Next it's AllGone

Attempt 1 :
bet 1 : Panama / Guadeloupe
Panama 1X2 for Game 1.962
Risking 10.00 to Win 9.62 EUR > WIN

Premium Member
Of course, the real question is do you really stick to the plan when it comes to bet 6 and onwards!? I don't think I could get past bet 7 before wimping out.

Originally Posted by AllGone
Well if its halved at 1.9 I will start looking for bets around 1.71.9. Seems that might be a better plan and get just under 10k after 10 bets instead. Thanks
Well the amount you earn is all directly proportional to the odds.
10 x 2.0 = 1/1024 chance of getting £10240
10 x 1.9 = 1/613 chance of getting £6130 (not "just under" 10k)
10 x 1.8 etc.
There's no special odd whereby you win a lot more money than the likelihood of the odds coming in (providing you are just mugging on random odds and don't have insider information of course).
Will be interesting to see how far you get, and, as bananaman says, whether when you get to £500 profit+, whether you carry on mugging (I know I wouldn't!)
Posting Permissions
 You may not post new threads
 You may not post replies
 You may not post attachments
 You may not edit your posts

Forum Rules
