Some of you will have seen I am running a thread in the "trading" part of the forum where I am posting my thoughts on any trading opportunities or any bets that occur each day.
I realised this morning that people who are not interested in trading will not look at that part of the forum will be missing alot of info for bets so I decided to just run a tips thread here and anyone who is interested in the trading side of things can keep tabs in the other thread.
Since I started the thread last week I have put up 8 tips that I thought were good value and had agood chance of winning. 6 of those 8 have won with prices ranging from 1.83 to 3.20. I will quickly post those bets and results.
MyPa vs Vaasa- Either team not to score @ 1.83 WON
Drogheda vs St Patricks- Half with most goals, 2nd @ 2.05 WON
KuPS vs TPS- 2-3 goals @ 2.00 WON
KuPS vs TPS- Half with most goals, 1st @ 3.20 WON
Mariehamn vs Honka- Half with most goals, 2nd @ 2.05 WON
Lillestrom vs Stromsgost- Half with most goals, 2nd @ 2.05 WON
Norrkoping vs Helsingborg- 2-3 goals @ 2.00 LOSER
Fredrikstad vs Odd Grenland- Half with most goals, 2nd @ 2.05 LOSER
Now just £10 on each of these selections would of yielded you £51.80 profit and an ROI of 64.75%
Like I said I will now use this thread for sports tips, obviously they can still be used to trade if people wish to do that. If I put up an over 2.5 goals bet and it is 2-0 by halftime then it is completly up to yourself if you let it ride or trade out. Not much for today and is a poor day of football.
Sweden Allsvenskanliga- Djurgarden v Syrianska FC HALFTIME DRAW @ 2.10 (2.22 betfair)
4 of Djurgardens 5 home games this season have been a draw at halftime and 4 of Syrianskas 5 away games have been a draw at halftime. So that is 8 games out of 10 that have been a draw at halftime.
HT DRAW odds are generally 2.10 with majority of bookmakers and around 2.22 on betfair.
An interesting stat is the fact that all the 8 games that have been drawn at halftime have been 0-0. You can back HT 0-0 at a top price 2.50 with ladbrokes or it is around 2.88 on betfair but not much liquidity.
Its difficult to decide which really is the better bet here, HT DRAW @ 2.10 or HT 0-0 @ 2.50
HALFTIME DRAW @ 2.10 obviously covers more options such as 0-0, 1-1, 2-2 etc whereas HALFTIME 0-0 only covers 1 option and it is HT 0-0.
As I said all 8 HT draws have been 0-0, the HT draw scorelines or 1-1 & 2-2 are very unlikely due to the fact that in the 10 games so far this season NOT ONE of them has seen more than 1 goal. So for this game to be 1-1 or 2-2 then that trend will have to end.
From a straight out betting point of view I would probably prefer to back HT draw @ 2.10 as if i backed HT 0-0 and it was 1-1 I would feel pretty stupid but if i was thinking froma trading side of things looking to trade out during the 1st half then I would probably be looking to get as much of that 2.88 on betfair as possible.
Another bet worth a look is "both teams to score" NO @ 1.83
Only once in Djurgardens 5 home games this season have both teams scored in the match and both teams have'nt scored in all 5 of Syrianskas away games. The question in the bet is will both teams score? and the answer to that question 9 times out of 10 so far this season is NO.
Under 2.5 goals @ 1.78 looks a nice price. Between Djurgardens 5 home games and Syrianskas 5 away games 9 out of those 10 have ended under 2.5 goals with 7 of those 9 also ending under 1.5 goals.
The only problem I have here is the fact that I NEVER outright just punt on under 2.5 goals and let them ride until the end of the game. If I get involved in unders the it is purely from a trading point of view. I will be trading on this market and you can checkout my thoughts over in the trading thread.
if you are happy to back unders bets then Under 2.5 goals @ 1.72 (couple bookmakers) and Under 1.5 goals @ 3.25 (ladbrokes/stanjames) look good prospects.