Ideal World

[Super_Dash]

Ok, I have been using some very randomly stochastically (I yes I am using random and stochastic in this way) lotteric (and creating words too) skewing on my bets.

I'll have another go and show you how I get on, if stay in; when my money's out i'll do the same thing somewhere else as I find this sort of thing quite fun and wouldn't mind doing it nightly.

The idea is, with the ability to reload when losing, I'll accept PITEFULLY low returns if I bust out. I mean £10 no matter how much capital i'm tying up. But when I do win; i'm hoping I'll make a considerable amount, on a small WR without tying up TOO much funds.

So Sunday Night I started; today is day 3 and heres my summary so far ...

Deposit for a bonus or freeplay or whatever.

Premise: Lump the deposit and the freeplay on a good odd event, underlay (dutch) to make £10 profit (so you'll make quite a bit at the other side if this is a £500 deposit and a £250) freeplay.

If win, lump the rest on something including the extra profit, but still only underlay (dutch) for £10 profit.



I've put alot of thought into this sort of thing and bust out after 1 attempt with 24hPoker , I decided that size bonus was childs play so a £400 deposit and a £200 bonus .. here are my results ..


£290 up after bet 1 St John's vs Notredame

£400 up after bet 2 Youngstown +9.5 vs Milaukee -9.5

Now i'm on bet 3 and almost completed the complete WR

North Carolina (+5) vs Georgia Tech -5 for Game

If North Carolina Win : + £150 Bustout
If North Caroline +5 Win but North Carolina actually lose: + £180 with £800 Wr
If Georgia -5 Win : + £468.50

This is the least under-dutch i've done and the least skewed as i'm practically through the WR.


In an IDEAL world - I'll bust out so I can repeat it over again.
Really I just want Georgia to batter em for max profit

If North Carolina win ( + 5) I will make a grand total of £80 for 3 days work (piteful I know)


Now it's important to realize, i'm not looking for "low loss" dutches; or things I think are going to happen; this is college basketball I know NOTHING about it This is the purest form of indifference.

I'm just picking something that looks reasonable. Choosing the minimum profit i'll settle for, and letting the rest sort itself out

This may keep me interested all of 1 post and I never revisit it again. Or I may be here a while doing this if I keep busting and/or keep finding new things to go in on.

But seeing as its a while since KP did this sort of thing I thought I might as well chart my experience.

[bandog]

You're obviously playing at some rare book, that offer very high limits on NCAA, as you had over 1.7k already after your 1st bet and over 3.2k after your 2nd bet won (you didn't provide what odds exactly you took, but it was around +185 for St John's and probably between -110 and +100 for 2nd game's spread).

So that kind of strategy will only work in full at books with very high limits, at Pin, and maybe at The Greek or Bookmaker. I hardly imagine any other book that will allow you over 3k on NBA, let alone on NCAA spreads.

[Super_Dash]

You're obviously playing at some rare book, that offer very high limits on NCAA, as you had over 1.7k already after your 1st bet and over 3.2k after your 2nd bet won (you didn't provide what odds exactly you took, but it was around +185 for St John's and probably between -110 and +100 for 2nd game's spread).

So that kind of strategy will only work in full at books with very high limits, at Pin, and maybe at The Greek or Bookmaker. I hardly imagine any other book that will allow you over 3k on NBA, let alone on NCAA spreads.

I'm not sure what it was for St Johns, I think it was +185 your right.

Took £400 Cash @ +195, and £200 FP @ +185

I don't know how you figured that.

so £400 Cash
£1550 Cash
£2960 Cash.

Allowed £2k on NCAA which is why I had £2k on the spread and £960 on the money line, hence why I get differing profits depending on the results.

I'll let you know the book if you want? It's not a big secret just didn't feel like mentioning it in the thread.

[bandog]

Oh yes, I overlooked you actually mentioned freeplay instead of cash bonus, (so the figures are a little bit lower). And especially that you split your balance on ML and on the spread. Interesting strategy. Still big stakes of 2k, though, so if you wan't to tell here (or via PM) what book is it, that would be nice

[Super_Dash]

The ideal result happened

The won by 17 so one more bet; withdraw then try again elsewhere.

So currently £468 with £800 WR to go.

This bet will be a minimal and equal loss bet I imagine. I think i'll use the Champions League if possible.

Ok, the last £800 was matched off for a £55 loss, shocking I know but I was hoping that using games that finish today will mean withdrawing tonight which will make things alot easier. [Depending on the speed of withdrawals]

£400 profit assuming everything goes ok and the games finish with scores not equal to 2 (I used a couple under/over 2 markets).

Now just have to wait!

[Super_Dash]

Had 2 pushes today and lost £30 taking high loss matches on the football in hope I could hurry and complete the WR :/. Found a great match on the basketball like I knew I would, pity I wasn't patient enough to do that in the first place.

[Super_Dash]

Ok, I like to stretch myself to the limit and with my first books funds due to be liberated tomorrow I decided to go into another book for another bonus.

First Bet

£1100 @ 1.91 on MASSACHUSETTS + 7
£1000 @ 2.08 on GEORGIA -7

I have a big balance and a big bonus and a big WR here but i'm happy with that. My Main concern is to keep my bonus intact if I win at the book with the cash bonus (i.e. the place where I bet 1.91).

Lets see how this goes.

I decided against the bust out strategy as I already have a sizeable balance here from a football winner and when I see good mathces some times its worth just doing what you can.

£880 @ 1.91 on Tulsa + 4
£808 @ 2.09 on Marshall -4

£339 @ 1.91 on Oklahoma +4.5
£310 @ 2.09 on Colorado -4.5

Wanted more on the last match but my Pinnies and Bank are exhausted lol.

I might have to Siphon some money out of my reserve account or move some money out of bookies to make this all more feasible but i'm not too worried. Even 1 win at Pinnies and that account will start to flourish again.

These bets weren't inline with my underlaying strategy. The limits at this book and the big underlay win on the football earlier don't allow it. But it shows how WR's don't have to be a problem if your looking hard enough

[Super_Dash]

Ok WR complete for the first bonus. £480 profit from a £200 Freeplay, must have had an underlay I didn't account for somewhere for that to be correct.

Either way... of the £557 I have in there after my withdrawal I'm aiming for £500 if I bust out or slightly more on top if I stay in.

So even with no WR; I'm going to continue!

Bet 1 post WR :

£557 on Portland + 3.5 @ 1.91
£480 on North Arizone -3.5 @ 2.04

Bust out for basically £400 profit or stay in and make an additional £25.

We'll see what happens!

[Super_Dash]

Another win £25 up. I have decided to under Dutch by an extra bit this time around so I'll be risking £1063 @ 1.91. And aiming to win £900 at odds of 2+ so probably risking about £850 for about £100 extra profit if I win at The book.

Oooh an Arb , I feel like this is gonna be my bust out bet but if it does keep me in it's going to be a nice profit.

IONA -3.5 £1063 @ 1.91
William & Mary +3.5 867 @ 2.13

£99 up if I stay in (1.91 odd)
Bust out with whatever profit if I don't (its hard to know how much it's all gotten crazily confused lol)

[Super_Dash]

Another underlay win . Great result my balance is over £2k again from a £557 start. £500 or so profit is enough for me; so going to withdraw.

For now that's underlay dash recuperating; hopefully depending on the currency conditions of BetLasPalmas; Dash will do the same thing!