There has been a lot of discussion on here recently in relation to mugging, advantage play and losses. Everyone has their own system and own way of playing (and a level of risk attached to that) and I am sure that most gamblers and matchers are always adapting the way they play in an increasingly competitive and hostile environment.
Having matched bets for over two years I have been looking for new systems to extract bonuses (and maybe earn a little extra) for the past year or so...
The martingale system is a well trodden way to lose all of your money but can it be used to extract bonuses as part of a system?
I have used martingale three times before:
1. On roulette as a student many moons ago - won £500 on day one, lost just over £500 on day two. experiment over.
2. On MLB totals last September to work through a $60k wager requirement at BetUS. I placed over 500 bets to meet this in one month and made an extra $6000 (I was over $16000 up at one point). I used only odds over evens predominantly using the totals market (as these were not standard -110 lines).
3. On NBA first half totals over the past couple of weeks for healthy four figure profits. I have only bet on two first half markets which I have seen as value bets through wagering in November and December (around 80 – 90 bets per week):
I plan to use $2k of my float over the course of a month using a martingale system on the following NBA markets:
- the first half 'over' totals market for identified higher scoring teams (Knicks, Magic, Timberwolves, Nuggets, Thunder, Suns, Clippers, Warriors, Spurs, Rockets, Raptors, Jazz)
- the first half spread for the favourite where the other team has played the night before (particularly looking out for Bulls, Knicks and Hornets). I tend to avoid the high profile teams (Lakers, Heat, Spurs and Celtics for this as they have very high spreads possibly due to the volume of wagers backing them).
I think there is an advantage arising from the totals market where there is a skew for the higher scoring teams towards a higher points total with a smaller number of very low scoring games i.e. 90, 105, 106, 108, 110 which results in a mean average of 103.8 and four winners from five based on a totals market from that average (I am not saying the market is priced from this alone and there are two teams in every game but it is an important factor). I prefer the first half market as you can bet more times in a busy NBA evening.
My win percentage in January from this was 0.6 (from 130 bets) and I would be keen to say where this moves to in the longer term.