BT's NBA experiment - martingale and bonuses

[Borussia_Teeth]

There has been a lot of discussion on here recently in relation to mugging, advantage play and losses. Everyone has their own system and own way of playing (and a level of risk attached to that) and I am sure that most gamblers and matchers are always adapting the way they play in an increasingly competitive and hostile environment.

Having matched bets for over two years I have been looking for new systems to extract bonuses (and maybe earn a little extra) for the past year or so...

The martingale system is a well trodden way to lose all of your money but can it be used to extract bonuses as part of a system?

I have used martingale three times before:

1. On roulette as a student many moons ago - won £500 on day one, lost just over £500 on day two. experiment over.

2. On MLB totals last September to work through a $60k wager requirement at BetUS. I placed over 500 bets to meet this in one month and made an extra $6000 (I was over $16000 up at one point). I used only odds over evens predominantly using the totals market (as these were not standard -110 lines).

3. On NBA first half totals over the past couple of weeks for healthy four figure profits. I have only bet on two first half markets which I have seen as value bets through wagering in November and December (around 80 – 90 bets per week):

I plan to use $2k of my float over the course of a month using a martingale system on the following NBA markets:

- the first half 'over' totals market for identified higher scoring teams (Knicks, Magic, Timberwolves, Nuggets, Thunder, Suns, Clippers, Warriors, Spurs, Rockets, Raptors, Jazz)

- the first half spread for the favourite where the other team has played the night before (particularly looking out for Bulls, Knicks and Hornets). I tend to avoid the high profile teams (Lakers, Heat, Spurs and Celtics for this as they have very high spreads possibly due to the volume of wagers backing them).

I think there is an advantage arising from the totals market where there is a skew for the higher scoring teams towards a higher points total with a smaller number of very low scoring games i.e. 90, 105, 106, 108, 110 which results in a mean average of 103.8 and four winners from five based on a totals market from that average (I am not saying the market is priced from this alone and there are two teams in every game but it is an important factor). I prefer the first half market as you can bet more times in a busy NBA evening.

My win percentage in January from this was 0.6 (from 130 bets) and I would be keen to say where this moves to in the longer term.

[Borussia_Teeth]

The rules

I have done well from these systems to date but I am a realist and know that things can turn very quickly with this system as it is a framework within which you chase losses. Here are my rules:

1. I will isolate $2k of my float and work with this only. This amount represents about 20% of my profits from January and is amount I am prepared and happy to take a high risk with.

2. My bet amounts will initially be $100, $200, $420 and $880 (or the balance of my float if lower). If I lose a $880 bet then no further increase will take place and the next bet will be reset to $100. Should my float increase significantly (to say $5k) then I will add a 5th bet.

3. Bets only on the markets above and always identified in advance. The bets can only bet placed following the conclusion of the previous event. i.e. for a busy NBA day I would typically bet on three rounds of games starting at Midnight, then 1.00 – 1.30am and then 3.00 – 3.30am.

4. Only two pending wagers at any one time increasing to three should my float increase significantly ($4k).

Bonus books or pinnacle?

This is a tricky one as the margins are much lower at Pinnacle.

However I plan to use other books and claim bonuses for two reasons:

1. A higher starting float i.e. an extra $600 from claiming 60% in bonuses – this will be better in the short term but not in the long term (however if I reach the long term then hopefully I will be in profit in any case).

2. All lines at -110 and no option to 'sell' a point should be odds not in my favour at Pinnacle i.e. -115, +108 etc.

I have not yet considered where to deposit my money and will probably use $1k on Monday night and the remaining $1k towards the end of the week when the superbowl bonuses are more likely.

[Borussia_Teeth]

The outcome

There a various possible outcomes from this:

1. End float $nil - $2000: clearly undesirable but a realistic possibility!

2. End float $2000 – start float: it will have been worth it for profit (of at least the bonuses)

3. End float greater than start float: if the potential advantage is true then this will be a possibility. If I reach the end of the month I would consider that I will make around 120 bets. Taking a win % of 0.5 on 100 games would mean profits of just under $6k plus the bonuses.

I will post my identified wagering games each evening and then update on the actual wagers placed and outcomes every morning.

Here goes!

[Nintendo2k]

Very interesting stuff. Will follow closely

As for the experiment I would say go with a bonus bookie. I would never place a bet with pinnacle, 12bet etc as odds are almost never out of line there. What you should do though is to use pinnacle as a guide, so if you spot a half point here or there or whatever, then attack that line at the bonus bookie to give you an extra edge.

[snoopy]

Good luck BT as this could be a nice little bonus for you if it all goes in your favor

I was thinking of setting up a little fund for myself once the baseball season starts (not as much as yours lol maybe £200) as the outsiders in any of the matches always seem to win as much as the favorites do. Obviously i would keep stakes low probably £10-£20 and seeing where that goes.

Will be keeping an eye out for your updates BT

[Borussia_Teeth]

Good luck BT as this could be a nice little bonus for you if it all goes in your favor

I was thinking of setting up a little fund for myself once the baseball season starts (not as much as yours lol maybe £200) as the outsiders in any of the matches always seem to win as much as the favorites do. Obviously i would keep stakes low probably £10-£20 and seeing where that goes.

Will be keeping an eye out for your updates BT

Cheers Snoopy - ill probably be doing MLB again too later in the year.

On NBA it is day 1 - a quiet day with only 4 games and not spead out (one at 1.00am GMT and three at 3.00-3.30am).

Ive placed two simaltaneous bets for $100 (both first half totals):

Spurs @ Blazers >96 (bet $100 to win $90.91)

Rockets @ Lakers >106 (bet $100 to win $90.91)

I have not made any new deposits today but have a $5k WR outstanding in a US book so will start by working through this before making new deposits later in the week (and claiming the bonuses of course).

[Borussia_Teeth]

Day 1 results

Spurs @ Blazers >96 (bet $100 to win $90.91) BET WON

Rockets @ Lakers >106 (bet $100 to win $90.91) BET LOST

Overall position $1990.91 (loss -9.09)

Ill post day two bets later tonight

[Borussia_Teeth]

Day 2

A big night tonight with three rounds of bets possible at Midnight, 1.00am and 2.00am starts (all first half totals).

Round 1:

Raptors @ Hawks >101.5 - bet $200 to win $181.82
Pacers @ Cavaliers > 104.5 - bet $100 to win $90.91

Round 2:

Hornets @ Thunder >101
Grizzlies @ Timberwolves >105.5

Round 3:

Trailblazers @ Nuggets >102.5
Rockets @ Jazz >102.5

(Round 2 and 3 bet amounts depend on whether previous bets win or lose)

A good alarm clock is essential for this!

[fraser]

Looks like day 2 went quite well! Very interesting thread this.

[Borussia_Teeth]

Day 2 results

Round 1:

Raptors @ Hawks >101.5 - bet $200 to win $181.82 BET LOST
Pacers @ Cavaliers > 104.5 - bet $100 to win $90.91 BET WON

Round 2:

Hornets @ Thunder >101 - bet $420 to win $381.78 BET WON
Grizzlies @ Timberwolves >105.5 - bet $100 to win $90.91 BET LOST

Round 3:

Trailblazers @ Nuggets >102.5 - bet $100 to win $90.91 BET LOST
Rockets @ Jazz >102.5 - bet $200 to win $181.82 BET WON

Daily profit: $254.51
Monthly profit: $245.42

A good night with winners spread throughout and a good starting position for tomorrow with one $200 bet required.

I had to overlap the Thunder and Nuggets bets as at 2.04am there was still just over a minute to play in the half and 4 points required to meet the 103 total required. My policy here was to bet $100 and if the total was met my bet was right and if the total was not met then I would see out this $100 bet before returning to bet $880 following the previous loss.