Football INDEX Insight – Performance Buzz

It has been a little over two weeks now since the arrival of the highly anticipated performance buzz (PB) and interest in the Football Index has never been greater with a real buzz amongst traders, excuse the pun…

Now that the PB pay-outs take a short break whilst the international fixtures are played (as these games do not yet qualify for PB), I think it is a good opportunity to review the impact the PB has had on the Index so far, as well as potential indicators for what may happen in the future.

Most players on the Index have seen a rise in their share price since the introduction of PB, largely because there are now increased opportunities for shares to attract dividends, whether media, or now performance related.  Some players on the Index have risen more than others due to the arrival of PB however, for reasons I will explain in more detail below.

For those of you who are still not aware or fully understand the nature of the PB I suggest you read the Index’s own guide which can be found at http://trade.footballindex.co.uk/pbguide/

If we start by looking at the very first day of the PB, Saturday 19th August was a very busy day of fixtures across Europe’s ‘Big 5’ leagues and therefore it was known as a ‘Treble day’ on the Index. This means that the dividend pay-out was treble the amount that the Index will make where there are only between 1-4 qualifying matches played.

Man United kicked off the day with a 4-0 win at Swansea. Eric Bailly scored the game’s opening goal which ultimately proved to be the winner as Swansea did not score themselves. Bailly scored a total of 221 PB points with the bulk of these coming from the fact that Bailly scored the game winning goal in addition to keeping a clean sheet. He finished the day not only as the highest scoring defender but also as the highest scoring player overall which meant that the Index paid out 9p per every share traders held in him (6p for best defender, 3p for best overall player).

Sadio Mane of Liverpool bagged the best midfielder prize by netting the winner in a 1-0 victory over Crystal Palace. He also went on to be the media buzz winner at the end of that day and therefore anyone holding shares in Mane received a tasty 11p per share pay-out (6p for best midfielder and 5p for media buzz winner). Mane is considered by many to be a ‘forward’ player but he is listed by OPTA (who provide the data for the PB on the Index) as a midfielder and so even his current share price of around £3 may still represent decent value as the season goes on.

The best forward of the day in terms of PB was Lorenzo Insigne of Napoli. Insigne was my star buy pick for Seria A in my previous article on PB and his share price has risen by around £1 since the launch of the PB, so hopefully any traders that picked up on my tip have benefitted from this increase as well as the subsequent dividend pay-out.

Strangely though, Insigne won the PB for the best forward without even scoring a goal. Napoli won 3-1 at Hellas Verona but Insigne only registered one assist in the match. The reason he could score a total of 194 PB points, even more than Mane who scored 191, was largely due to the number of passes and shots Insigne made during the game.

Insigne attempted an impressive 9 shots, 5 of which were on target, as well as making 76 passes. The points he was awarded for the total number of passes and shots he had in the game, added to the points for his assist and being on the winning side, meant his PB score was higher than players who had either registered a match winning goal or had even scored more than one goal in a match on the same day. For example, Javier Hernandez scored twice for West Ham as they went down 3-2 to Southampton but he was only able to accumulate 121 PB points overall.

On the Sunday (19th), another ‘treble day’, Neymar was the best forward and overall player as he scored twice and provided two assists in a 6-2 win over Toulouse. Marcos Alonso of Chelsea was unsurprisingly the best defender on the day as he scored twice in the 2-1 win over Tottenham. Toni Kroos of Real Madrid won the best midfielder PB as he scored in a 3-0 win over Deportivo La Coruna.

The following Saturday (26th), Messi was the best overall player with 274 points as he scored twice in a 2-0 Barcelona win at Alaves, despite losing points for missing a first half penalty. Although Dybala scored a hat-trick for Juventus on the same day, Messi was able to score more points overall, largely due to the greater number of total passes and shots he made during the game.

These initial PB results seem to show that whilst players who score goals, particularly game winning goals, will usually be in the mix for winning PB, it is not all about goals but rather a player’s overall performance.

So, looking forward, my advice would be that when looking to buy shares in a player with PB in mind, it’s not just about players who score goals but those who are also heavily involved in the teams play, particularly in terms of passes and shots, who will be consistently in with a shout of winning PB. It also helps if you hold shares in a player who plays for teams that regularly win matches as bonus points are awarded if your player ends up on the winning side.

Consequently, players like Neymar and Messi who play for teams who regularly dominate and win matches in their respective leagues will usually be in the mix for PB, hence why both players are more than £5 per share.

Outside of the ‘obvious’ players like Messi and Neymar I think there is still plenty of value to be had for traders with a perhaps a smaller budget, and potentially someone like Insigne is a good example of that. It is never too late to get involved on the Index!

Ultimately though, whether your player wins PB or not, I have found it is still great fun to watch the PB being scored and then updated live by the Index, both via the mobile app and the website, as the games take place.

The PB so far has been a great new addition to the Index in my view and long may it continue!

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